ATG,
>>>>>>>> The feeble attempt to lift it back over 15000 (pension funds buying under orders from the high windows) was unsuccessful and two trading days after the first close below 15000 we see the Nikkei back at the low. It could be a double bottom if we bounce again, but until then it is not. <<<<<<<<<<
Technically you are correct that it is not yet a double bottom until it bounces. My note was implying that the N225 is now at the level where a double bottom could form, and that there is a liklihood that it should bounce. If it does bounce then the size of the bounce may be critical to whether it could hold, and I feel that if the bounce is less than 2.5% the bounce may not hold. If it does not bounce then obviously the double bottom did not form, and that would be another negative for the JAPAN market.
>>>>>> Can you tell if the recent stair step is in your opinion a closer match to the first or the second stair step? If it looks more like the first, then you favor my count, and if it looks like the
second, then you favor David Plonk's count. <<<<<<<<<<
I attempted to compare the 3 stair-steps at 9000, 8600, 7800, looking at time, oscillations, market internals. What I noticed as a major difference is TIME and SIZE OF THE OSCILLATIONS.
The oscillation size is getting larger in aboslute numbers but, using that criteria it is not conclusive that the the 7800 step is more similar to the 9000 step or the 8600 step.
The market internals are fairly similar, and cannot come close to a conclusive similarity.
The one that stands out is TIME. It took the 9000 step 7 days to drop, but the 8600 step lasted 15 days. Within these periods, both had two spikes to the upside in an attempt to break-out upwards, with all of these attempts failing. As of Friday's close, the DOW is making its 2nd attempt on the 8th day. The reversal to the downside occured within 1-2 days after the 2nd upspike occured in the previous steps.. In reference to TIME, the step at 7800 is closer to the step at 9000, not 8600. Hope this was of some help.
Seeya |
