Steve, Re: TA
I will only repeat Donald's comment to you: Steve an excellent analysis.
I did not appreciate the importance of DJIA 7400 until this weekend. Now then, if we keep bouncing along here between mid-7000's and 8100, aren't we providing the classic set up for a H&S pattern.
When I look at '97, I also see a rotten August with the low set on the last trading day (899.46 on S&P). Then a fairly good rally lasting thru September and ending on 10/7 (983.12) for a 9.3% gain. There then was no curtain call. We only saw this level one more time in '97 (12/5), and the situation continued until the end of January, 1998.
Sure seems like a similar pattern is forming, this time with a H&S to add to the global political scene that you identify so well in a later post. I stated months ago that the biggest concern I had about Clinton's weakness is that the Congress would use it to not fund the IMF. It smacks of the protectionism of the 30's, updated for the "modern" financial world.
Let me add that I am no fan of the IMF. I see the dollars similar to those spent on the Military/Industrial complex of prior times. However, I do see the failure to fund the IMF will cause some significant global discomfort. It's just all part of the background that could cause a H&S to be increased importance. If one measures from the top of the head to the developing neckline, it's a long way down.
Berney |
