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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Personal Contingency Planning

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To: C.K. Houston who wrote (453)9/13/1998 4:50:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (1) of 888
 
' Household Core Tasks and Disasters

'From:
"Sharon McGhee" <smcghee@worldnet.att.net>
4:46

Subject:
Household Core Tasks and Disasters

I have greatly benefited from this discussion, and would
like to expand upon the following key idea behind the
excerpt from Living Conditions, Disasters and
Development by Bates and Peacock (1993):

that every adaptive pattern is subject to increased
vulnerability as its environment changes or as
rare and unusual events occur ... which its
culture does not predict and for which it does
not provide adaptive responses. (p. 12, bottom)

While discussing this with a colleague of mine, I was
struck by the great difficulty he had with the idea of
"increased vulnerability." For this reason, I thought that it
would be interesting to use mission-critical components of
running a household that were identified by Bates &
Peacock in order to see if this is really true.
Let's have some fun!

Household Core Tasks:
1. Shelter
2. Access to a supply of potable water
3. Food preservation and storage (refridge, etc.)
4. Food preparation (stove, oven, etc.)
5. Food serving (eating utensils, etc.)
6. Sleeping accommodations (beds, mats)
7. Human waste disposal
8. Washing, cleaning (clothes, dishes, utensils)
9. Bathing
10. Lighting
11. Climate control
12. Communications

One last thing before we begin: Bates and Peacock state
that highly adapted cultures are very vulnerable in three
areas: 1) energy supply 2) communications 3) transportation,
so I will look at the impact of severe degradation of services in
these areas to identify the overall vulnerability of industrial
society. (Societies that are "interdependent and technologically
advanced ... are the most vulnerable to sudden and complete
collapse, should their energy supply be cut off or their
communications and transportation systems fail." pp. 16-17)

1. Shelter
UNDER-DEVELOPED: make-shift, "informal" dwellings pulled
together from salvaged items of no real value. No change after
a disaster.
ADVANCED or highly adapted: "formal" dwellings, whose use
is largely dependent upon other underlying primary systems.
During a blackout, for example, high-rise apartments may become
impractical due to elevator failure, or water outages. Without
adequate HVAC or open windows, dwellings may become
unusable. Greater fire risk when fire suppression systems fail.
COMMENT: These urban structures are, then, more vulnerable
than those found in a poorer rural setting.

2. Access to a supply of potable water
UNDER-DEVELOPED: usually a spring, river or stream, or local well.
Although at risk of contamination during a disaster, these water
supplies are self-regulating and likely to return to normal functioning
after a disaster.
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: very vulnerable during a disaster due
to break-down of pumps, well contamination, loss of service. In the
case of denser populations, greater numbers are impacted during an
outage. Water trucks had to come in after Hurricane Opal, revealing
another underlying layer of dependencies. Malfunctions with water
distribution systems can accelerate the delivery of contaminated water
(Cincinnati's experience with cryptosporin, TCE contaminated PVC
pipes in the '70's and '80's) to a greater population.
COMMENT: Again, larger numbers are put at greater risk when these
systems fail.

3. Food preservation and storage (refridge, etc.)
UNDER-DEVELOPED: minimal facilities for food secured through a system
with very shallow logical depth. However, disasters in the area of food
production can have grave population impacts (famine, draught).
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: features highly developed food
preservation systems of great complexity, and great logical depth. Once
harvested or produced, food follows a serpantine path before it can be
consumed at the dinner table. But acute failures at any of these critical
steps can put the entire food distribution system at risk, due to multiple
layers of complexity. For example, the loss of power, even for a couple
of days, renders refridgeration capacity useless.
COMMENT: Although I would say that a disaster heavily impacts both
societies, the food distribution system of the advanced society can put
at risk greater numbers in less time than the less sophisticated society.
The frequent "recall" of contaminated food from the distribution system
is evidence of this vulnerability.

4. Food preparation (stove, oven, etc.)
UNDER-DEVELOPED: wood-fires, etc.
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: Again, without electrical power, natural
gas lines (cf. the Florida gas outage this past month), this becomes
impossible.
COMMENT: This is a very vulnerable area when the systems upon
which we depend so heavily fail.

5. Food serving (eating utensils, etc.)
UNDER-DEVELOPED: few utensils, dishes, etc.
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: many utensils, dishes, etc.

6. Sleeping accommodations (beds, mats)
UNDR-DEVELOPED: simple accommodations, impacted along with shelter
during a disaster.
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: Sleeping arrangements here are more
heavily dependent upon shelter (which is generally more vulnerable and
more dependent on underlying systems cf. above).

7. Human waste disposal
UNDER-DEVEOPED: disaster impacts from improperly disposed of human
waste in primitive and traditional societies can be very great, especially
when scarce drinking water has been contaminated (typhoid, cholera).
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: If the underlying infrastructures that
dispose of human waste (pump or lift stations, secondary treatment
facilities, etc.)
are rendered useless, the potential for widespread devastation (sewage over
flows and backing up into homes, into low lying wetland contamination, or
coastal area contamination) is much greater, and the potential population
effected is larger.

8. Washing, cleaning (clothes, dishes, utensils)
UNDER-DEVELOPED: about the same after a disaster, since potable water
supplies
seem to be less vulnerable.
HIGHLY ADVANCED or developed: This is were we are in big trouble. Without
water running out of the tap, without electricity to run our washers,
dryers and dishwashers, what would we do? Probably eat from dirty dishes,
wear
the same clothes, sleep in the same bed-clothes for years. Very unhygenic.
COMMENT: I hadn't given this much thought until yesterday. This morning
I got some dish-pans at a garage sale. Do you know how they washed clothes
during the Great Depression? By boiling them in large metal tubs. Where can
I get one? How will I heat it? Should our systems fail, this will be
heavily impacted, much more so than in under-developed societies.

9. Bathing
Under-developed: Tubs, special pans, cold water in 50% of Peru.
Highly advanced or developed: I think people would do without rather
than take a cold shower. Last week we tried out a 6 gal solar heated camp
shower that was a delight. My wife thought it was even too hot!
COMMENT: If our systems fail, we are screwed in this area, don't you think?

10. Lighting
Under-developed: I don't know. Do they just do without? Candles?
Highly advanced or developed: Heavily impacted. I cannot imagine life
without indoor artificial lighting. I would probably start getting up
before dawn to make full use of the daylight, then retire when the sun
sets. wow.
Tagore, the Asian Indian poet and humanist (Gandhi's sponsor) would greet
the sun at dawn with a prayer/ritual. Maybe doing without wouldn't be so
bad after all.

11. Climate control
Under-developed: see shelter above.
Highly advanced or developed: see shelter above.

12. Communications
Under-developed: primitive societies rely on oral tradition (story telling,
town crier, etc.) as a means of transmitting information. Their
accomplishments
in this area are legendary.
Highly advanced or developed: The destruction of modern means of
communication will have a devastating effect: disorienting, fear-producing,
etc. given the extent to which we have allowed ourselves to become the mere
extenstion of our media. I stopped watching TV about a year ago. Now I know
why.
COMMENT: I take this category to be one of the under-emphasized aspects
of advanced society vulnerability. The consequences of misinformation being
spread can be incredible, just as the failure of a timely warning being
unheard can lead to a population's extinction. Right?

Well, that's it for now. Please feel free to make corrections and
additions.
Glen
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