Here is a summary and this is just my interpratation of what was
written and may be totally wrong .I encourage all investors to
do thier own research and also to subscribe to WSJ as it
includes barrons. These are very good sources of quality information.
Charlie Tuna
The Current Bull is 16-years, the std practice has been to purchase
undervalued stocks, buy the dips and average down.
NOW
-major price indexes topped out in mid-July
WATCH OUT:
It is RISKY to buy too soon when share prices are rapidly skidding.
How To Find the BOTTOM:
-a "selling climax,":
investors' "final capitulation" near a major market bottom.
irrational selling....
solid stocks are dumped with abandon, regardless of their prices
Then everyone wakes up and sees or siezes the bargains
So now with this intor out of the way they go into explaining how
Lowry interprets the tea leaves to find the bottom...mainly it
is a lets look at past bottoms for patterns...basic tech analysis
but using some new and improving indicators....focus on INTENSITY
of PANIC BEHAVIOR now for the how do you quantify such a psychological
term:
PS(PANIC SELLING)
selling climax, as gauged by intensity:
Look for "90% Downside Days.
On these days, the number of points lost equals or exceeds 90% of the sum
of points gained plus points lost, while at the same time, downside volume
equals or exceeds 90% of the sum of upside volume plus downside volume.
example:
8-31-98 qualified as a 90% Downside Day.
points (dollars) gained totaled 89, and points
(dollars) lost totaled 3,511.
points lost equaled 97.5% of the sum of
points gained plus points lost:
3,511 / (89 + 3,511) x 100 = 97.5%.
At the same time:
upside volume that day totaled 46.5 million shares
downside volume amounted to almost 1.04 billion shares
downside volume equaled 95.7% of the sum of upside volume
plus downside volume.
OOPS:
The big selloffs also occurr on the way down not just at the
bottom so how do you know when lucy aint just yanking your
chain? YOU DONT
More History:
7 in 62
14 in 73-74
2 in 87
7 in 90
Watchout for FALSE SNAPBACK RALLYS which last between 2 to 5 days.
(unless you are quick like some mice and beat the snap of the trap)
(this is just ol tuna man talking)
Yeh But How Low can They Go before the upturn welllllllll
It dont turn around till 2 things occurr:
1.the supply has dried up....as in really oversold
2.the demand returns as in people see real value based upon
fundemental analysis.
PB(PANIC BUYING) signals the END of the BEAR
PB is collary of PS (panic selliing)
Example of PS followed by PB:
1962:
last PS was during May and June of 1962
the last PS occurred 2 days before the final low.
Then on June 28, three days after the low was hit,
a 90% Upside Day was evident.
CAUTION:
be wary of upside days on which only one component, points gained
or upside volume, reaches or exceeds 90%,
Such rallies are often short-lived.
Example of a FALSE PS
June 15,1962
June 11,1982.
What's Lowry's indicator saying now?
Since April 27 ,4 PS days with three since the market peaked in mid-July.
On Sept 8th PB ( 380-point rally)the first 90% PB since April 5, 1994.
So what is next well if it aint the bottom then it will go DOWN alot
more it all depends on what comes next PS or PB this will set the
trend for the next market . |
