Eric, it's not a matter of faith, but reasonably to judge whether or
not it's feasible. Yes, I think it's feasible for 600k figure, which
didn't indicate the total volume shipments will be double in this
quarter. I think you could figure out by yourself.
Let's do a small calculation as follows:
From August 3rd to August 10th: 150,000 pre-order units, equivalent
to 18,750 units per day if there are eight days in this period due to
pent-up demand.
Is it feasible for 360,000 units in August?
If Apple sold 360,000 units in August, then it needed to sell about
10,000 units per day from August 11th to 31st. The order's rate has
been decreased from 18,750 units to 10,000 units per day, 53% of its
pre-order rate. It's significantly decreased in this busiest
back-to-school period. If Apple continues to have that decreasing
rate, then, how many iMac could be sold in September (26 days)? The
answer is 137,800 units, which is reasonable estimate. Therefore,
the total sales volume is 497,800 units in US alone. It'll be
easily reach 600,000 units including overseas sales.
Phil |
