Ray,
Welcome to the COMS thread. Thanks for your TA analysis.
I myself rely more on FA but I do like to hear other
people's perspectives and TA usually makes me think
of things from a different perspective. If nothing else,
I'm sure there are a lot of traders who trade by just
the TA facts related to COMS and create
self-fullfilling patterns to justify TA analysis.
Lately though, I would really be hesitant about using
TA since we are in very unusual market times and I don't see
how TA can predict unusual events such as countries
devaluing their money, etc.
But, it may be possible that not all stocks are moving
parallel to the macro-economics of the world which has been
driving the 'big picture' stock movements. One big indication
of this was last week when we the market was down big, but
COMS was up big. So, maybe TA can apply to COMS in this
moment if the 'big market' movements are not affecting it
as much.
>>To start with, 3Coms has been in a severe downtrend since December of 1996 (like you all didn't know). If we connect the highs of December 96 with the highs of mid October 97 and mid April 98, we come up with a beautiful form of resistance, known to technicians as "a Downtrend line."<<
To be precise about this "downtrend line" -- would you say
that two points one can draw a straight line through to
create the 'downtrend line' would be around SEPT 5, 1997 at
price equal to around 57...and....DEC 5, 1996 at price equal to
about 82?
I can see your point about breaking out of the 31 - 32 range.
Interesting that you see this happening this week coming up.
I believe you could be right. We will see.
>>So the strongest signal for this stock would be given when it breaks above its downtrend line and its 200 DMA which also has proven to be tough resistance. Given the strength of the indicators I'm using, I believe COMS has seen its bottom and is about to turn up. This week should mark the beginning of the first close above this 2 year old resistance line. Good Luck. <<
I agree with your analysis for the most part based on past
history of the stock. The part that is left out by so many
TA experts is: what if the market takes a deep dive? Of
course, the DOW has gone down some 1500 pts or so and yet
COMS has gone up last week. Can this pattern persist if
the DOW or NAZ drops another 10%?
It's like CRAWFORD said one time: COMS the company is on
the way up it looks like. COMS the stock (market) was
acting pretty badly, except for last week.
If we get a friendly market, I think COMS will be ready to
bust through the 200 DMA.
joe |
