Joe:
There's no reason for you to start my introduction with a fight between FA and TA. If you don't follow it, that's fine. But there's no reason to make comments like
Lately though, I would really be hesitant about using
TA since we are in very unusual market times and I don't see
how TA can predict unusual events such as countries
devaluing their money, etc.
You obviously don't understand the principles of TA to make this comment. More importantly, I don't see how FA could do it either.
To be precise about this "downtrend line" -- would you say
that two points one can draw a straight line through to
create the 'downtrend line' would be around SEPT 5, 1997 at
price equal to around 57...and....DEC 5, 1996 at price equal to
about 82?
Yes, this is the same line I mentioned but using different points of Time.
I agree with your analysis for the most part based on past
history of the stock. The part that is left out by so many
TA experts is: what if the market takes a deep dive?
Again, you betray the fundamental assumptions of TA. FA has assumptions too. I'm not going to give a lesson in TA simply because most here would not like it and we are trying to discuss COMS. But to answer your question, the above is already accounted for in the chart. If you don't believe it, please don't make an issue of it.
Can this pattern persist if
the DOW or NAZ drops another 10%?
It sure seems to have worked when the Dow did so earlier in August, so of course. TA isn't some type of light that turns off when the market tanks. It's an ongoing saga where the drop may call for other things to come as well.
Conservatively Yours,
Raymond J. Norris |
