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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ensco International Inc. (ESV)
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To: Gottfried who wrote (1481)9/13/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: jim p. holcomb  Read Replies (3) of 2005
 
GOT FRIED,

I'VE BEEN ALONG FOR THE LONG HAUL WITH ESV AND I HAVE GOT FRIED AS THE STOCK HAS PULLED "A MONICA" (GONE DOWN). I HAVE SURVIVED SEVERAL DOWNSIZINGS IN REGARD TO EARNINGS ESTIMATES.THE ANALYIST THAT FOLLOW THIS STOCK WILL REVISE EARNINGS UPWARD A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THEY REVISE THEM DOWN. THIS IS KNOWN AS BEING "CONSERVATIVE". TO BE A REAL WINNER, YOU HAVE TO ANTICIPATE WHEN THE CONSERVATIVES WILL "REALLY GO OUT ON A LIMB AND PREDICT HIGHER EARNINGS". WHEN I WENT TO THE ANNUAL MEETING IN 1997 IT WAS STATED THAT 70% OF THE DAY RATE OF A RIG GOES TO THE "BOTTOM LINE". MOST OF THESE RIGS WERE BUILT IN THE 80'S AND HAVE BEEN UPGRADED IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE ONLY REAL BIG OUTGO IS FOR THREE BARGE RIGS THAT ARE ALREADY UNDER CONTRACT TO VENZUELA. ESV ALREADY HAS 10 BARGE RIGS WORKING AT LAKE MARACIABO.WHEN I INQUIRED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CONTRACTS NOT BEING RENEWED, I WAS TOLD THAT IT IS CHEAPER TO DRILL A "NEW HOLE" THAN TO REWORK A PREVIOUS HOLE. STAY TUNED. JIM.
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