Here is Fridays discussion.... wont be able to post these everyday, but I will try to pull some of the more interesting ideas discussed for a while..... This one you will have to wade through as I didnt have any time to edit... but it has some interesting questions about dumpers and gainers in the middle...
Good Luck
Ken
www.mtrader.com
(C) 1998 MTRADER
[12:30] <Nesi> Please, Double Click on Nesi to send questions for Ken.
[12:31] <KenWolff> 9:32:09 Lets group some stocks together to see where we
have been and why we had a tough time with an indicator today..
[12:32] <KenWolff> 9:33:22 Ok.. I made an error early on today which was
crucial to me..
[12:33] <KenWolff> 9:33:50 Lets place on a clean quote screen the
following stocks as groups...
[12:33] <KenWolff> 9:33:58 2 groups of four stocks each..
[12:34] <KenWolff> 9:34:34 first group: AMZN,LCOS,SEEK,NSCP second group:
AAPL,ORCL,INTC,ADBE
[12:34] <KenWolff> 9:34:55 If you were here yesterday these are two groups
of different horses...
[12:34] <KenWolff> 9:35:13 Our momentum group is which one????
[12:35] <catrader> the second?
[12:35] <dbcooper> second
[12:35] <KenWolff> 9:35:28 group one or two.. please write down your
answer..
[12:35] <KenWolff> 9:35:40 right.. the second... WHY???
[12:35] <catrader> news... and fresh momentum
[12:35] <mraxl> amzn
[12:35] <dbcooper> fresh
[12:35] <KenWolff> 9:36:04 right..
[12:35] <KenWolff> 9:36:19 fresh earnings out on INTC,ORCL,ADBE
[12:36] <KenWolff> 9:36:28 good earnings beating expectations...
[12:36] <KenWolff> 9:36:43 I did like mraxl... I included AMZN in the 2nd
group...
[12:36] <KenWolff> 9:36:46 why did I do that??
[12:36] <KenWolff> 9:36:56 any guesses??
[12:36] <catrader> has been a leader lately?
[12:36] <dbcooper> its a momentum stock
[12:36] <catrader> just a guess
[12:36] <KenWolff> 9:37:20 right..
[12:37] <KenWolff> 9:37:37 it has been such a good indicator for us I
stubbornly included it in my group..
[12:37] <KenWolff> 9:37:54 it really threw off my estimation of the
momentum group...
[12:37] <KenWolff> 9:38:15 I am lucky I caught INTC off 82 or I would
deserve cussing..
[12:38] <KenWolff> 9:38:33 but I did miss some other trades along with too
many questions disturbing me this morning..
[12:38] <KenWolff> 9:38:58 Normally I accept alerts... but NOT
questions... unless I fail to give targets on any trades called..
[12:38] <KenWolff> 9:39:09 Or someone is in trouble..
[12:39] <KenWolff> 9:39:25 Look at group ONE..
[12:39] <KenWolff> 9:39:41 they are the internet stocks and not nearly as
strong as our momentum group..
[12:39] <Sneezy> np
[12:39] <Sneezy> sorry
[12:40] <KenWolff> 9:41:09 also please notice the pullbacks from the
open... AMZN DOWN 5 BUCKS, LCOS DOWN 2 BUCKS, SEEK DOWN 1 3/4 , NSCP DOWN
3/8
[12:40] <KenWolff> 9:41:16 A pretty mixed bag right...
[12:41] <KenWolff> 9:41:27 Now lets look at the momentum group...
[12:41] <Nesi> 3 questions holding..
[12:41] <KenWolff> 9:42:21 AAPL DOWN 1 FROM THE OPEN, ORCL DOWN 0 , INTC
DOWN 1 1/4 , ADBE DOWN 1 3/8 ...
[12:42] <KenWolff> 9:42:54 again it is a fairly mixed bag.. were able to
catch INTC off 82 which was good..
[12:42] <KenWolff> 9:43:09 because of the relative consistency of the
pullbacks..
[12:42] <KenWolff> 9:43:18 on the momentum group..
[12:43] <KenWolff> 9:43:44 ORCL was the worst because it had a life of its
own and is in very narrow range too.. not much opportunity..
[12:43] <KenWolff> 9:44:11 when you spot ONE stock that is not behaving
well both in volume and trading pace.. ignore it..
[12:44] <KenWolff> 9:44:29 You should just move on to the rest of your
group..
[12:44] <Robbie> tick 0 (flat)
[12:44] <Robbie> oops...
[12:45] <KenWolff> 9:45:44 We had a very good pre open indication of the
selling due to INTC, NWAC and some others that began adjusting down in price
right before the open which signaled us to the open short possibilities...
[12:45] <KenWolff> 9:46:05 but once again you would have to be an
experienced trader to nail NWAC and a few others at the open.. short..
[12:46] <KenWolff> 9:46:34 Ok.. any questions??
[12:46] <Nesi> <runner> Question to Ken should we scalping on our own, any
technics to become better scalper??
[12:46] <_hedgie> Question on dumpers. Do you buy right at open, or wait for
some kind of base? On CGNX today, you had to be PDQ. But the other day, CCMC
dropped well into the trading day.
[12:46] <KenWolff> 9:47:09 I normally do not scalp runner unless the
action is very predictable....
[12:46] <Nesi> Please, Double Click on Nesi to send questions for Ken.
[12:47] <KenWolff> 9:47:52 I normally look for upside or downside
potential to justify a trade... trying pick off a trade for 1/8 of a pt.. is
not really interesting to me..
[12:47] <KenWolff> 9:48:19 It all depends on the market and the
conditions... the consistency of the trading..
[12:48] <KenWolff> 9:48:47 I will at times call scalps but they will have
1/2 pt potential.. I call them scalps because they are usually off the high
or low of the day..
[12:48] <KenWolff> 9:49:14 and they can turn and should be exited fast if
they do...
[12:49] <KenWolff> 9:49:32 Next question??
[12:49] <Nesi> <columbus> This is more of a comment than a question. I
decided to track this mornings Alerts, using the time of the call and TOS.
Here are the results based on what I felt was my ability to trade them, EAGL
in 21 1/4 out 22 (spread big, no play for me) +3/4, DELL in 55 1/8 out 57 +1
7/8 (ran higher)NWAC in 28 1/16 out 27 3/4 -5/16, NWAC in 27 5/8 out 27 7/8
+1/4, ABDE in 28 1/16 out 27 13/16 -1/4 INTC in 83 out 83 1/8 +1/8, COMS in
28 7/16 out 28 1/4 -
[12:50] <KenWolff> 9:50:28 thanks columbus..
[12:50] <KenWolff> 9:50:32 does not look too hot..
[12:50] <KenWolff> 9:50:57 I think the INTC alert was at 82 columbus..
[12:50] <columbus> So results are mixed, so you may want to track and
compare to your own trading.
[12:50] <Nesi> <columbus> So as you can see other than DELL the results are
mixed, so it may be a good idea to use TOS to track Ken's calls and compare
it with your own trading.
[12:51] <columbus> ken INTC was a let's see what happens off 82 since
indicator
[12:51] <larisa> I played INTC from 82, was good call Ken...
[12:51] <KenWolff> 9:51:34 Oh OK..
[12:51] <KenWolff> 9:52:01 I think I said INTC should climb off 82 and
lets see what happens..
[12:51] <columbus> That's it
[12:51] <_jjinvest> total = 2 to 3 pts. not bad ken
[12:52] <KenWolff> 9:52:25 In any case interesting..
[12:52] <_jjinvest> especially on a day like today
[12:52] <KenWolff> 9:52:58 I appreciate you tracking cause I really do not
remember most of them.. I remember INTC cause I was using it as an
indicator..
[12:52] <KenWolff> 9:53:16 Next question or comment??
[12:52] <Nesi> <_atrani> question2: can indicators be changed during market
hours, and how one decides that they are no longer good indicators for the
day ?What characteristics Ken used to determine the indicators for the day
or at any time ? Thanks.
[12:52] <columbus> If someone is having trouble following calls, tracking
may help that is all.
[12:53] <KenWolff> 9:53:33 good idea..
[12:53] <KenWolff> 9:54:01 I try to spot a stock that is leading the group
and YES sometimes I have to jump around...
[12:54] <KenWolff> 9:54:38 It is not easy to do but until you get an idea
of the general action in the market... in a changing market you will get
stopped a few times..
[12:54] <KenWolff> 9:55:05 In a consistent market you will see a very good
consistent even pullback that will allow you easier trading..
[12:54] <KenWolff> 9:55:19 and rarely get stopped out..
[12:55] <KenWolff> 9:56:01 I always track the pullbacks.. the consistency,
the amount and even the time of day it occurs..
[12:56] <KenWolff> 9:56:29 Once for about 2 months I bought all dumpers at
exactly 8:30 Pacific time and made fantastic money...
[12:56] <Magic> do you keep a chart during the day on all these pullbacks?
[12:56] <KenWolff> 9:56:37 why it was like that I do not know...
[12:56] <KenWolff> 9:56:55 No.. I memorize all the action..
[12:56] <Magic> AHHHHHH.... thats my problem!!!
[12:57] <KenWolff> 9:57:43 I think that is the reason I have always been
good at spotting patterns and changing when the market threw curves.. my
ability to remember over the years the general action..
[12:57] <KenWolff> 9:58:01 It is much like an old friend visiting...
[12:57] <KenWolff> 9:58:18 but lately this market is really changing fast
, I have never seen this before..
[12:58] <KenWolff> 9:58:40 Not an old friend.. kinda like a bad relative..
[12:58] <KenWolff> 9:59:16 Next question??
[12:58] <_bear> A small bid/ask size is bad? What is a good spread?
[12:59] <KenWolff> 9:59:53 1/16 to 1/8 spreads are best...
[12:59] <KenWolff> 10:00:00 I will at times trade 1/4 pt...
[12:59] <Nesi> <Sneezy> I find most times that by the time I bring up an
order on Ken's alert, his alerted price is gone by an 1/8 or more, and I
don't want to chase...especially if no upside is given... maybe a range to
enter would help, because I don't want to chase something by a 1/4, only to
find out in Ken's next post that the potential is 1/2..?
[13:00] <KenWolff> 10:01:10 I understand.. many times a trade allows very
little time to enter and you have to anticipate the trade as it occurs..
[13:00] <KenWolff> 10:01:21 It all depends on the market and the trade...
[13:01] <KenWolff> 10:02:09 that is the reason we have a class... to teach
how to anticipate.. and this market is just not allowing traders without
experience much opportunity..
[13:02] <KenWolff> 10:02:42 I think what we are seeing is "jumpy scared
trading"
[Nesi SOUND]
[13:02] <KenWolff> 10:03:16 We need the traders to settle down into a more
predictable and easy rhythm..
[13:03] <KenWolff> 10:03:45 Next question??
[13:03] <Nesi> <Mikelo> what is the max number of stocks that you can track
at one time?
[13:03] <KenWolff> 10:04:04 about 25 ..
[13:04] <KenWolff> 10:04:28 It all depends on the time of day.. trading
pace and general action..
[13:04] <KenWolff> 10:04:44 the toughest is the first 5 to 10 minutes..
[13:04] <KenWolff> 10:05:10 many stocks jump off the early bottoms really
fast... you might get 10 trades all occurring at the same time...
[13:04] <Magic> Ken... are you saying that your tracking 25 stocks in your
head?
[13:05] <KenWolff> 10:05:27 15 minutes goes by and you miss them all..
[13:05] <KenWolff> 10:05:32 Yes magic..
[13:05] <KenWolff> 10:05:52 I really have the opportunity by trading calls
that few will ever have...
[13:05] <Magic> I am resigning my membership and quitting. I cant remember 2
stocks
[13:05] <KenWolff> 10:06:04 calling trades..
[13:05] <KenWolff> 10:06:23 trading and calling trades are two different
worlds..
[13:06] <KenWolff> 10:06:35 It seems the same BUT IT IS NOT!!!
[13:06] <KenWolff> 10:06:59 I can spot 10 trades all bottoming and move
through 4 or 5 alerts... but I cannot possibly trade them...
[13:07] <KenWolff> 10:07:35 I get the opportunity to scan many stocks
everyday looking for potential.. and I have been doing it for about 2 years
now..
[13:07] <KenWolff> 10:07:45 If I were trading I would focus only on about
10 ..
[13:07] <KenWolff> 10:08:01 I would pick on ONE trade at a time...and
narrow my focus..
[13:08] <KenWolff> 10:08:30 when I traded.. I would only look for 2 trades
per day...
[13:08] <KenWolff> 10:08:51 I was very picky..anything fast .. I stayed
out of..
[13:08] <KenWolff> 10:09:10 and I would average about 2K shares per
trade... up to 10K ..
[13:09] <KenWolff> 10:09:34 I traded at 90% and my losses were usually
small..
[13:09] <KenWolff> 10:09:53 next question??
[13:09] <Nesi> <catrader> What do you consider to be a good pain threshold
for reverting to paper trade? I'm been down about 18% port money since I
started a couple months ago.
[13:10] <KenWolff> 10:10:40 It all depends on your learning curve.. here
is what I did and do:
[13:10] <KenWolff> 10:11:16 1. I paper trade allowing for 30 second
executions until I am about 90% successful..
[13:11] <KenWolff> 10:12:07 (when I began I would trade a pattern on paper
and when I put real money in it , it would change... I would lose and go to
another pattern... but..when the pattern repeated.. I was ready.. LOL"
[13:11] <KenWolff> 10:12:11 )
[13:12] <KenWolff> 10:12:48 2. when I was trading at 90% I would begin to
trade for real.. I began with 1K shares ..
[13:13] <KenWolff> 10:13:33 I suggest you begin with 200 shares because
learning the execution system requires more expertise.. I began with "Brown
and Co" doing all my executions..
[13:13] <KenWolff> 10:13:40 I did well with ETrade also...
[13:13] <KenWolff> 10:14:10 their PC text execution system did well....
Internet stinks... I lost 2 grand on them because of timeouts..
[13:14] <KenWolff> 10:14:57 I began learning the self execution system
using "Castle Securities"
[13:14] <Nesi> 2 questions holding...ken..
[13:15] <KenWolff> 10:15:31 they were awful... kept getting problems... I
changed to AbWatley and did well there.. until they grew..
[13:15] <KenWolff> 10:15:54 3.
[13:16] <KenWolff> 10:16:44 3. After trading 200 shares and learning how
good I am at keeping stops I would increase my shares as my experience
dictates..
[13:16] <KenWolff> 10:17:10 next question??
[13:16] <Nesi> <_hedgie> Question on dumpers. Do you buy right at the
opening, or wait for some kind of base? Today on CGNX, you had to be PDQ.
But the other day, CCMC drifted down for a while before bottoming.
[13:17] <KenWolff> 10:18:18 I normally wait for a pullback on dumpers
because they run down about 80% of the time... so that is the highest
percentage... all you can do as a trader is watch for the first uptick if
you really want in the trade...
[13:18] <KenWolff> 10:18:26 it requires tremendous focus..
[13:18] <KenWolff> 10:19:14 CGNX was a toughie.... it ran from the open...
[13:18] <KenWolff> 10:19:19 which was unexpected...
[13:19] <KenWolff> 10:19:40 dumpers are getting stronger..
[13:19] <KenWolff> 10:20:00 CCMC was more like the normal dumper..
[13:19] <KenWolff> 10:20:11 next question??
[13:19] <Nesi> <_dphillip> Are you recommending a co. like "Brown and Co."
for those who need to start at the 200 shares level? What about Datek?
[13:20] <KenWolff> 10:20:27 INTC over 84.. buyers are still here...
[13:20] <KenWolff> 10:20:59 I am recommending MBTrading for self executed
trades...
[13:20] <KenWolff> 10:21:18 they are for the active trader who wants to
take advantage of faster plays...
[13:21] <KenWolff> 10:21:38 With MbTrading I can buy a stock very fast...
[13:21] <Nesi> <_dphillip> In other words - should a beginner start with
MBT or the like or go for lower comissions during the learning curve?
[13:21] <KenWolff> 10:22:16 but if you wish to only trade a few times per
day and want over 1K shares.. I would use "Brown and Co" ..
[13:22] <KenWolff> 10:22:41 Overhead is a biggy when learning...
[13:22] <KenWolff> 10:23:01 but it makes no sense to learn how to race
driving a volkswagon Van ..
[13:22] <KenWolff> 10:23:17 It depends on your goals..
[13:23] <KenWolff> 10:23:43 and if NEWS begins to drive stocks big again..
MBtrading will make you a lot more money...
[13:23] <KenWolff> 10:24:20 but some traders cannot think fast enough to
learn the execution systems and use them when in the heat of trading ..
[13:24] <KenWolff> 10:25:08 I think also MbTrading will be accomodating us
in the area of learning very soon... rumor..LOL
[13:25] <_dphillip> Thanks MBT has a tutorial on executions? On MIRC?
[13:25] <KenWolff> 10:25:39 I am very concerned over you younger
traders... there is little "easy" opportunity these days...
[13:26] <KenWolff> 10:26:26 I would like to bring you along very slowly
and give you easy trades... but the market is wild and wooly and not a place
to be learning how to execute..
[13:27] <KenWolff> 10:27:25 overhead was always a biggy with me because I
was trading small money.. and heck it was expensive for quotes, news and
commissions..
[13:27] <KenWolff> 10:27:42 Not to mention all the other junk..
[13:27] <BillyD> yeah like bills LOL
[13:27] <KenWolff> 10:27:59 Yeah.. for sure..
[13:28] <KenWolff> 10:28:34 Yes.. read all you can dphillip ...
[13:28] <KenWolff> 10:28:43 call MbTrading and ask them...
[13:28] <KenWolff> 10:28:48 talk to nesi also..
[13:28] <KenWolff> 10:29:15 next question??
[13:28] <Nesi> <Mikelo> when a stock trades 1/16 spread and has no bid/ask
@ 32's and you see no 32's trades, how do you judge the inbetween part of
the botom?
[13:29] <Nesi> no more questions ...
[13:29] <KenWolff> 10:29:59 sometimes there are none.. but usually there
are Mikelo...
[13:29] <KenWolff> 10:30:05 It depends on the trade...
[13:29] <KenWolff> 10:30:17 and sometimes you cannot even spot buying...
[13:30] <KenWolff> 10:30:39 You see 2 sells on a stock and it upticks 1/2
pt... STAY OUT OF THOSE..
[13:31] <KenWolff> 10:31:25 this summer has been one of the worst I have
seen for jumping around...
[13:31] <KenWolff> 10:31:48 Ok.. any more questions??
[13:31] <Nesi> no, thanks for class
[13:31] <KenWolff> 10:32:08 OK.. lets go back to trading..
[13:31] <Jefe> Thanks, Ken
[13:31] <KenWolff> 10:32:12 bye and good luck..
[13:31] <golf-ace> nesi - were did my question go
[13:31] <KenWolff> 10:32:23 what question golf??
[13:32] <Nesi> look private..
[13:32] <Nesi> <golf-ace> Ken - explain what you are looking at pre
opening - is it a minder, lvl 2 or what , and what columns are you focusing
on , bid ask I am confused , because I don't see what you are talking about
when I look at my minder before the bell - HELP
[13:32] <Nesi> Ken Wolff's Market Minder Column
Layout:http://www.mbtrading.com/woogie.html and
mtrader.com
[13:32] <_dphillip> thanks Ken
[13:32] <Nesi> and that is the anwser...
[13:32] <KenWolff> 10:33:14 I look at the bid and ask only pre market..
[13:33] <KenWolff> 10:33:25 I also look at the pre market volume..
[13:33] <KenWolff> 10:33:51 if any bid or ask is lower than the last trade
of the previous day... that is considered a gap DOWN...
[13:33] <KenWolff> 10:34:13 If the bid or ask is higher than the last
trade of the previous day.. that is a GAP UP..
[13:34] <KenWolff> 10:34:58 1 minute before the open the bid and ask
should reflect the opening price...
[13:35] <KenWolff> 10:35:29 OK.. any other questions??
[13:35] <KenWolff> 10:36:05 Ok.. lets go back to trading.. good luck..
[13:35] <Nesi> thanks... |
