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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Riskmgmt who wrote (20399)9/13/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: Tom Trader  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Hi Ray -- re the Clinton scandal and the markets

I will refrain from elaborating too much, in the discussion on this thread regarding the Clinton scandal. Suffice to say that my views are substantially in agreement with yours--and I voted for him. I think that he is a brilliant man who history --before this scandal broke-- may well have ranked as an "above average" US president. But he, like Nixon--who I also thought was a brilliant man--has a deeply flawed character(and I am not talking about his libido)and all of his accomplishments will be over-shadowed by his failings, irrespective of what happens to him over the next two years.

I was in the US when the Watergate scandal broke and it was interesting to see the impact on Nixon's job approval ratings over time. Nixon was as disliked by the liberal wing as Clinton is by the conservatives --and both had a sense of paranoia about their enemies--real and imagined. Nixon remained popular with high job approval ratings until the economy went into a recession because of the oil embargo and the spike in oil prices--and then the revelations about his actions began to take a toll. Clinton's undoing will occur if the economy weakens -- and may be the global economic problems and their impact on the US economy, may end up being his undoing.

As far as the markets are concerned, they can handle a resignation -- with perhaps a knee-jerk sell-off that may last a few weeks or thereabouts. What will, assuredly, impact the markets adversely would be prolonged hearings as to whether he should be impeached--or for that matter a two year presidency where he is essentially a crippled lame-duck who has no ability to influence the agenda. Perhaps this scenario of an ineffective president combined with the other factors that are presently adversely affecting the market, will be the final part of the equation for the markets to continue to slide, though perhaps, more in terms of a grinding bear-market than any huge decline.

All of this is mere conjecture--but what we do know is the markets dislike uncertainty--so let us see how things unfold.
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