LT,
>> Most have never seen a mkt in liquidation, let alone an entire planet's equity mkts under liquidation. <<
Interesting comment, and unless you are seriously older than I think you are, you haven't seen a 'meltdown' either! Now, my Dad (currently 87 years old) has been through this before. His idea of 'meltdown' is as follows:
1) Market off 95% - making it ~500 from the 9300 high.
2) Banks closed - due to lack of available cash.
3) Unemployment at 33%.
Now, world wide, that would definitely fill the 'depression' requirements. He has charts that indicate that the current levels cannot possibly be maintained! He has been predicting the 'meltdown' since 1978 and it hasn't occurred yet! He has missed countless opportunities, yet he remains steadfast in the belief that the 'meltdown' is coming! While he will probably be correct, there is no indication that it will occur in his lifetime, as it may not occur in yours or mine. My wife passed away in 1995, and from the time that we were married in 1969, had always been planning for the 'meltdown', which never occurred in her lifetime. Again wasted opportunities!
I think that the current correction of some of the issues of ~20%-40% would register those issues as in a 'bear' market and depressed. Like you , I think that there is a tremendous transfer of wealth going on at the present time to the wealthy, and that if and when the market collapses, there will be the evaporation of billions in paper profits, but there is also the distinct possibility that there is the evaporation of billions in paper due to lost opportunity sitting in cash waiting for the crash! I don't have the answer, but if one is absolutely sure the market will crash, sell it short, take the cash now, and cover at pennies on the dollar! It seems to me that regardless of the position that we take, there is a tremendous possibility that our wealth can be diminished! (Money in the mattress during severe inflation, money in the market during an 'unwind'.)
>> DELL will see the 30's (MSFT-- 65) on the first leg down of the NDX which I see as IMMINENT. <<
IMMINENT - Could you be a little more specific please? Is that this year, Next year or Next Millenium? After all 'Dad' has been predicting this since 1978!
Regards,
Ken |
