your comments are interesting and make a point that I have been trying to illustrate. You commented that you and your dad were always predicting disaster since 1978 and yet it never came? (correspondingly there were individuals saying that the mkt would turn in 1966 and it never did till 1982 when everyone thought inflation was going to take oil to $100 bbl and gold to $2000 an ounce) All the while you were expecting disaster, the stock mkt moved higher and higher as everyone tripped over each other to buy securities. So finally you even joined in, afraid of missing the ride. Now, today you wonder if maybe the party is ending yet you look back and see how wrong you've been for the last 20 yrs so you naturally conclude that it can't happen and plow the last bit of your money into the mkt perceiving it as safe, afterall you've been expecting disaster for so long and it never came so it must be dead?
What I have just described is the psychology leading up to a top. The reverse of course is true for a bottom. Until you see everyone finally throwing in the towel on their bullish predictions, we are no where close to any sort of meaningful bottom. My thinking is it will likely be several yrs until we wash out much of the drunkeness that is so pervasive on WS today.
My only experience w/ a mkt in liquidation was Japan in 1990, although I have studied in detail both the US mkt of the 20's and Japan's bubble. Obviously, I have no first hand experience w/ the '29 disaster and ensuing bear, although I have spoken to many that WERE. I was not involved in the Japanese mkt either, but I had friends that were. Unfortunately, they were long. They kept buying all the way down. Seems silly now doesn't it? It didn't to them at the time. Think about that the next time you average into DELL.
I think we'll see the NDX collapsing (taking DELL w/ it of course)w/in the next couple weeks. Large players that are hanging on by the skin of their teeth have been using the big cap sled dogs in the NDX as their anchors. When these stocks finally go, you will see a panic sell off like none you or I have ever seen. I saw this week as likely, hence I warned this thread and received just the sort of responses I expected (and was hoping for!(G) ) Time will tell...
-Lucretius
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