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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: James Strauss who wrote (20438)	9/14/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Jim,..Re: Recession?? NOPE - If you agree with the statement A recession starts when our gross domestic product begins to contract. GDP is calculated using four components -- consumption, investment, government spending and net exports (exports minus imports). Three of these are entering free fall. I don't think the author has done some homework. Consumption - look at the 3 year charts for better perspective dismal.com Consumption dismal.com Analysis Investment - dismal.com Business investment in durable equipment expanded by 18%, which although a strong pace is only half last quarter's expansion. Government Spending - dismal.com Treasury budget dismal.com Treasury Budget analysis - note increased spending in the most recent report Net Exports - he did get this part correct. dismal.com US Trade balance - 3 yr Finally, the statement Weaker Asian currencies have made U.S. exports less attractive and foreign imports more attractive, doesn't take into account the recent $ weakness and assumes that global trade and economies are static. tfc-charts.w2d.com $ weekly If you look at the monthly DXY chart, again you'll obtain a better perspective. Also, he made a point about consumer confidence falling. And again, a chart tells a better story especially if you look at the 3 year chart. dismal.com Consumer Confidence - check the 3 year trend Regards, Lee The Shadow Open Market Committee is talking about Inflation!

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