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Non-Tech : The Children's Beverage Group (TCBG)
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To: Sai P. yandamuri who wrote (1856)9/15/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: Dave Shoe  Read Replies (1) of 2452
 
Sai,

If the stock is going nowhere, what would be the benefit of shorting it?

I think TCBG is boringly low right now because the first product shipment news is near but not here. XYBR and VLNC are the same way. I'd be afraid to short TCBG in it's current position. Not much room to profit from any fall, but lots of loss on the upside if things work out as anticipated.

I never expected to see 'price and volume doldrums' prior to first shipments, but so far this appears to be the norm with several of the speculative stocks I presently follow. I'm timing my entry point differently in the future.

(I hate sounding so damn optimistic with the stock so low, but I'd have sold out and moved on if TCBG wasn't still a favorite.)

Looking at the math from my irrelevant perspective: Stock volume is very low. Not many motivated sellers at this price. TCBG isn't talking right now so new investors aren't noticing. The last press release probably put the brakes on any perspective investors.

The next likely action to excite investors will be when product hits the consumer in volume. The next action to bum a lot of folk out will be that of a production line startup delay. Either could happen. Either looks probable. The price could go either way.

I don't expect audited financials, patent news, or NASDAQ filing for several months.

We ain't on the fast track right now. This is a wait-and-see stock. Or, thinking of my delayed investor samples again, this is a wait-and-sip stock.

Shoe.
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