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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Bret Savage who wrote (7180)9/15/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Jeff Lins  Read Replies (1) of 16960
 
I ain't selling (I don't think...). I've been to hell with this one, and I truly believe it will be back. Here's why:

Competition is fierce. But TDFX has the best yet to come. Banshee is clearly going to have some major OEM wins. This will establish our foot in the door. We will continue to expand in this market.

Our product lineup should be top notch. Savage 3D is a pretty good chip. It has already benefitted from the .25mu scale. It has nowhere to go. Matrox has a fine chip/card in the G200. Don't see anything coming from them for a while. TNT is a fine chip. THey will get better at the .25mu level. Banshee will get faster going to the .25mu die. They also stand to benefit from 2X AGP, and if the rumored 2TMU version comes out, should beat the heck out of TNT.

They have also done some good marketing lately, with ERTS deal and Babbages. V2 "roundups" in various magazines have been nice press, and the verdict is in: our 7+month old technology is faster than TNT.

Now the biggeee: remember how we always seemed to go down after good news? Remember how we joked that the stock would probably go up if we could get a little bad news? Well, unfortunately (I think), we will get to try out that theory tomorrow. And remember how JPA never talks about TDFX? Well guess what? I am willing to bet they have a field day with this one. Should include a few "we told you sos" in it...

I think holding will be tough, and ultimately profitable. But it'll be dead money for a while I think. Should be an interesting day...
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