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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap
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To: Investor2 who wrote (15479)9/15/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance  Read Replies (1) of 17305
 
*AV* ---Very good question. I gave it a great deal of thought since the real underlying question is "when will this stock get out of the sewer?" <GGG>

I think we will officially see the orders for equipment and IC devices pick up sometime in the latter part of first quarter 1999 with some decent numbers reported in April. The road to recovery will be reflected in the July earnings releases that will convince the market we have come out of this downturn. However, the DRAM issue is real bad and will only get worse. Someone needs to find a new use for some of these manufacturing facilities, or figure out more uses for DRAM chips.

The street will be unkind to this sector and will toy with it much like a cat plays with a mouse. We will be tortured until about May of next year before the herd officically returns to these stocks. I think this sector will be on a rather tight leash and the historical 6 month activity preceding the actual results may not apply this go around. We might be lucky to see 2 months. This is one time I hope I am wrong and I am playing my cards as if I will be wrong and it is business as usual. If I am right, I have allowed my money to stagnate for 4 extra months.

I am not straddling the fence here. I stand behind what I said but I am not going to listen to myself in "hopes" that I am wrong and we get out of this stuff faster. A case of do as I say and not as I do might apply.<GGG>

Andrew
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