The fabs that were shuttered for good were 4MB fabs, which is indeed business as usual. But I was under the impression that the Koreans are also restricting production of 64MB parts, which would not be business as usual. Am I mistaken?
I would agree that ASPs are below break even for MU, as well as below break even for everyone else. I am confident that MU is still reducing costs, and will eventually get costs down to the current ASP, but of course the ASP could be/will be lower by then. However, with no money, and no loans available, how much progress at reducing costs can the Koreans be making? My guess is that the Koreans will fall further and further behind in the cost department. This will force them to try to restrict production further to keep prices up, which will benefit MU and other low cost producers even more than it benefits Korean producers. But what choice do they have?
I think that the end is in sight, and MU will survive, but the Koreans will either get out completely, or become a lot smaller. I guess that makes me a "forever bull". Or was that forever full of bull? <VBG> Of course Kurlak is on your side, but I have Gruntal. <VBG>
Good luck,
Carl |
