Missile Launch Shoots Holes in East Asian Alliances
By Philippe Noubel, Inside China Today analyst
This time the missile did not land in the Taiwan Strait, it landed in the Sea of Japan. But in East Asian capitals, that made no difference, as the fear caused by the North Korean missile evokes the past: the
missiles fired by the Peoples' Liberation Army near the island of Taiwan in 1995 and 1996. And for Washington, the alarm bell is ringing for the same reason: its allied islands are under threat from the
Asian mainland.
The missile launch was just the latest near crisis that has made it clear that political alliances in East Asia are undergoing significant changes.
On Monday, Aug. 31, the Japanese media reported a North Korean missile had been fired and landed in the Sea of Japan, after flying over the archipelago. Since no warnings of such missiles had been given by Pyongyang, the incident could have started a war, reported all major Japanese dailies.
Later in the week it was learned that the launch was a Taepodong I missile, which has a range of 2,000 kilometers, making it capable of reaching all of Japan. The missile can transport biological or nuclear
weapons.
The criticism of this "incident" has been sharp and consistent from Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Tokyo and Taipei.
Taiwan's concerns stem from the increased cooperation between the United States and China. Tokyo and Taipei want Washington to reaffirm full support to the two island nations in light of U.S. President Bill
Clinton's visit to mainland China earlier this summer.
The U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, signed in June 1960, links Tokyo and Washington. This document allows U.S. troops to be stationed in Japan.
In 1978, both countries also signed the Japan-U.S. Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, which was updated in September 1997.
For the first time since 1945, Japan will be allowed to engage in military operations outside its borders in conflicts involving the United States. In addition, the Japanese will be required to open their ports and air bases to U.S. troops and to accept non-combatants and refugees evacuated from war zones.
After the September 1997 signing, a Japanese official acknowledged the Taiwan Straits is part of the common U.S.-Japanese security zone in the region. The revelation angered Beijing.
Taipei is also under Washington's protection according to the
"http://www.insidechina.com/china/politics/taiwan/tairelat.html" Taiwan Relations Act, signed in April 1979. The document ambiguously stipulates the United States is entitled to "appropriate action" in
response to dangers to Taiwan.
Clearly, any attack on Japan or Taiwan from the Korean peninsula or from mainland China would immediately prompt a U.S. military response.
Since Clinton stated publicly during his summer visit to Shanghai that Washington recognizes the "Three No's Policy," essentially spurning Taiwan, Tokyo and Taipei fear mainland China is replacing Japan as the United States' privileged partner in Asia. This has pushed Tokyo closer to Taipei to counter Beijing's rise.
Japan, which maintained full diplomatic relations with Taiwan until 1972, switched to recognizing Beijing in the same year. But Tokyo has strong ties to the island, which was a Japanese colony from 1895 to
1945.
In early September Chinese President Jiang Zemin was supposed to go on an official visit to Japan, but it was canceled at the last moment. The catastrophic floods on the mainland were given as the official
reason for the cancellation.
But according to many sources in Tokyo, the real issue is political concerns over Taiwan. After Clinton's Shanghai declaration, Beijing wanted Tokyo to take the same step. Japan has refused to do so,
however, saying Taiwan's ban from international organizations is unacceptable.
Japan is hoping for a seat at the permanent Security Council of the United Nations, where Taiwan held China's seat from 1949 to 1971, until the Taiwan-based government was expelled and replaced by
Beijing.
For Japan, the North Korean missile has marked the end of a myth. Japan is no longer safe and unexposed, as the financial crisis shows. And it is time to look for allies, especially if they share the
same economic, political and military concerns. |
