Primakov's In, Russia Is Down and Out
By Rod Pounsett
The confirmation of Yevgeny Primakov as Russia's prime minister may temporarily stabilize the political situation, but it spells economic doom for the country in the long term. A government led by Primakov
will last three months at the most, during which time it will turn a crisis into a disaster, the fallout from which will plague Russia, and possibly the rest of us as well, for years to come.
Despite being a respected and skillful diplomat, undeniably intelligent and a broadly liked individual, the former spymaster lacks the acumen to run a medium-sized business let alone the gargantuan,
crisis-ridden Russian national economy. Even if he adopts a non-interference, titular role, a sort of loved-by-all public figurehead, lack of know-how in the Cabinet beneath him guarantees bad times ahead.
At best he will help avert civil disorder for a few months as the masses supplement their plummeting daily diet with helpings of false hope. Having never before experienced his involvement in economic affairs and with only his meritorious record in other jobs to go by, the ordinary Russia people will be blind to the risks.
Just look at the prospects:
Yury Maslyukov as his deputy responsible for economic planning and day-to-day management of financial issues. Management and Maslyukov are two words I cannot hang together comfortably. To begin with, he is a product of the totally discredited Soviet Union Gosplan stable -- remembered in the West, as well as among progressive factions in Moscow, as the ministry for economic mismanagement.
After all it was Gosplan's stranger-than-fiction economic blueprints that drove the Soviet Union's economy into the dust and decimated the country's industrial infrastructure. Recently sacked prime minister Sergei Kiriyenko found Maslyukov, so out of touch with market economy issues when he was squeezed into his Cabinet that he binned him as soon as possible.
Then we are told the equally discredited Victor Gerashenko will get his old job back as head of the Central Bank. It was his mismanagement that many people believed accelerated the latest attack on the ruble.
Even if you put alleged reformer Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the Yabloko Party, into the frame, it is hard to see where ideas are going to come from to get Russia out of trouble.
Economics-trained Yavlinsky has been a darling of the Western media because of his constant availability to provide a safe-from-the-sidelines critique of successive governments' policy. But can he put his sometimes off-the-wall opinions into on-the-job, practical use?
At the same table as Maslyukov and Gerashenko, I doubt it. Throw in a few more of the brain-dead Communists from the Duma and it really spells trouble. In the view of most Western observers, there is
only a handful of people among those who have had anything to do with upper management of government and the economy in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union who even get close to understanding the issues. Reports I have had suggest none of these people are being considered for the new government team.
There may, of course, be others who understand the issues but, for various reasons of self-interest or other agendas, they just do not want to address them. But without the likes of Anatoly Chubias, Boris
Fydorov, Aleksander Shokin, Yevgeny Yasin, Jakov Urinson, Yegor Gaidar, Aleksander Livshits, or even the slower-than-most, Victor Chernomyrdin slotted into the formula, Russia is headed back to Soviet
style stagnation. Or worse.
I may be wrong. I hope I am wrong. But with men like Mikhail Gorbachev coming out of the woodwork with praise for Yeltsin's appointment of Primakov my confidence takes a further dent.
Rod Pounsett writes a weekly column for Russia Today. Read the past issues too.
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