Andrew:
I see you like a lot of stats. When you use "real growth rate", what are you referring to-appreciation of the stocks in the averages, the GNP or whatever? Do we both agree that stocks have appreciated at a greater rate then the historic average rate of appreciation. Although, from what you write, this 20%-30% "real growth" is making up for an undervalued stock market. Anyway, this is what I think part of your message states. But then you state that 20%-30% is unsustainable and if you agree to this and you feel it is unsustainable then a correction has to occur. I get the impression you think the correction would be a gentle one. Past history of the market, which one cannot assume will still be the case, has given us much more of an abrupt drop than, I think, you envisage for the market. My feeling is the market will have a correction, which we haven't experienced yet, that is why I have put some monies into a money market fund for a short period of time. I agree, the stock market is the best place to have your money in the long run, excluding the real estate. I'm sure I haven't touched all bases but this is enough. |
