IMS Health Sees '98 Global Prescription-Drug Sales At $308B
PFE - NYSE
By Melanie Trottman
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--IMS Health projects that worldwide sales of
prescription pharmaceuticals will reach $308 billion in 1998, up 1.7% from
1997, with the U.S. remaining the primary growth market.
At a press briefing in New York Tuesday, the health-care auditor said product
innovation will be the primary driver of sales growth for the industry in 1998,
followed by volume and price increases.
This differs significantly from three years ago when the vast majority of the
industry's growth was being driven by product sales volume, the agency said.
Though prices are inching up from their 1995 to 1997 rates, their rate of
increase continues to remain below that of the early 1990s, IMS said.
Outside of the U.S. market, key regions are entering or repeating a period of
difficulty, IMS said, with the Japanese market experiencing the highest drug
sales decline of the industrialized nations.
IMS projects Japanese drug sales will total $40 billion in 1998, down from
$45.4 billion in 1997. Within Europe, IMS forecasts a 1998 drug sales decline
for Germany and France, with the U.K. and Spain experiencing growth.
"Budget targets of the public health agencies and rationing are key factors
driving market conditions in Europe," said William Machtiger, vice president of
global client services at IMS.
IMS said anti-ulcerants, cholesterol reducers, and antidepressants are the
three leading therapeutic classes in worldwide sales, with sales of $12.6
billion, $8.7 billion and $8.6 billion, respectively.
Cholesterol reducers and antidepressants had the largest growth from 1997 to
1998, at 21.8% and 19.6% respectively.
Warner-Lambert Co.'s (WLA) cholesterol reducer Lipitor is the fastest-growing
product worldwide, IMS said. Sales of the drug in June of this year were at
$1.3 billion, up 685% from the same 12-month period ended June 1997.
The therapeutic class experiencing the largest decline on a percentage basis
is anti-obesity, falling 42.8% from 1997 to 1998, IMS said.
The health-care auditor attributed the sharp decline to the 1997 withdrawal
of Redux by American Home Products Corp. (AHP).
Three pharmaceutical companies among the top 10 generated double-digit
percentage worldwide sales growth during the past year. Merck & Co. (MRK)
ranked first in worldwide sales, had 11.9% growth, while Pfizer Inc. (PFE),
ranked sixth in sales, had 15.9% growth. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) ranked 10th in
sales, had 18.8% growth.
"Looking to the future, the industry's product pipeline is a key barometer,"
said Machtiger.
In 1993, 4,000 products were in the preclinical stage of the research and
development pipeline. That figure has risen steadily and in 1997 reached an
all-time high of more than 6,000.
But research and development will not be the end in itself for the industry,
Machtiger said.
"Most illnesses have adequate remedies, so the challenge facing the leading
pharmaceutical companies will be succeeding in fast-growing markets, proving
product value and applying clearer focus to customers, including patients," he
said.
- Melanie Trottman; 201-938-5287
(END) DOW JONES NEWS 09-15-98
12:38 PM
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