Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (24292)	9/15/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 70976

re: I am going to go short here on any bounce Be careful. Be very careful. I remember not too long ago thinking AMAT was in a 26 to 32 trading range, shorting at 32, and having the market promptly tell me the real trading range was 23 to 39. As a general principle, this stock is more volatile than you think it could possibly be. We've recently broken below a support line that had held for 10 months. AMAT has been in a narrow range, 23-26, since then. That's too narrow to be the real trading range. The market is still in the process of establishing a range. It will break (down or up) soon. If I had to guess, I'd say down, but it's only a guess. You might do better waiting for the market to tell you where the trading range is. I'd be happier if I had waited before buying. re: "no reason for the equips to rally." Sure there is. When sentiment is this bad, but everyone thinks the stocks will eventually recover, and a lot of scared money is on the sidelines waiting to jump in, there is always the possibility of a (probably false) rally, (to 32 or 39) based on hopeful speculation. Wouldn't you be happier shorting at 39 than 25? Will you keep some powder dry and have the courage to continue shorting all the way up? When will you cover and admit you were wrong? You need to be sure of your answers before you act.

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