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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Real Man who wrote (671)9/15/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
I agree, re-nationalization is not likely.

And that is the only thing that could make investing in Russian blue-chips a losing game (IMHO). The blue chips are so undervalued that if Russia does pull out of this crisis, the sky is the limit on these shares.
The default on the external debt is possible I guess. What I do not understand is that Russia is saving billions on the GKO restructure and the 90 day debt moratarium. These two events were very recent. yet the only time I heard about a potential external debt default is after these two events. I guess everybody is assuming the ruble will be trading at 40 to the dollar or something.
Anyway, once the economic plan is unveiled there may be a chance for a surprise bailout for Russia (if the plan is deemed reformist). Because any more defaulting by Russia could really hurt Europe. At least that is my opinion.
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