Ciena (CIEN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 208.74

+4.8%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: ian who wrote (3138)	9/16/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: saju chacko	Read Replies (2) of 12623

this is the way i see it... CIEN was a very hot item about two months ago.. then it lost it's T contract which was half it's revenue... then it lost the TLAB merger... then the 100 million contract that CIEN was expecting... which it turns out it will get some of but next quarter instead of this one.. also this quarter CIEN beat the revised estimates... of course all these things warrant a sell-off... but, my friends i don't think that these levels due justice to this stock.... follow my reasoning.... before TLAB CIEN was around 55.... during this time it was planning the T contracts.... then the T contract was lost which represents half of CIEN revenue... fine so according to my quick analysis.... 55/2 equals 27 1/2.... but then there is the pessimism of the earnings warning and the TLAB cancellation.... so we'll take off another 7 points so what we have left is a stock around 20... not 13.... with a p/e ratio of 12...like some have already commented this is a case of huge volume selling at the same time which forces the stock down... when the pressure is releived i think the price will rise back to around 20 to 25... easily... also consider the fact that i haven't put any premium in the price for CIEN being a merger or takeover candidate..... this is my opinion in this matter... Saju

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