"Aside from today's action, not sure what you mean by lower lows for VTSS."
Sorry, I was mistaken if you look at more than just the last several days of action. The 9-1 intraday low was 24 7/16. I'd say we're in the process of testing that level. As my previous post suggested, I'm dubious about it holding. But your 100-day chart does make one want to believe in firm resistance @22-23, should we get there. That's where my buy order would be (though I'll have to sell something else I like a lot first). Taking out the low of two weeks ago and then rebounding could really set things up for a very nice intermediate-term (several weeks at least) rally, as it effectively shakes out the last of the weenies. It's a formation I've seen before, and it has a very high probability of predictability. Of course it's no fun for those of you who are already long, especially if you're buying power has been zapped like mine and everyone else's has.
"That said, do you suspect that the price of VTSS would be different today if it were not for its linkage---right or wrongly---to Ciena and TLAB?"
I honestly don't have much of a clue. I have no position in VTSS and have only been following it since about the time of the last earnings announcement. I'm sure those of you who have been following the company for some time have a much better feel on this than I do. That's why I'm on the thread - to learn the fundamentals from you guys. As a fairly diehard TA'er, I'd have to say the market's gonna find whatever news it needs in order to justify doing what it has to do. Anybody on the verge of selling or not buying will take whatever's handy as an excuse to justify their action (killing a buy order or putting in a sell), especially in a jittery market like this, even if the Dow is up rather nicely the last couple of days.
I've found TA is good only in a very short-term sense, as a timing tool for entry/exit. Long-term, ya gotta go with the business, the industry, the management, etc., which all look excellent here from what I've been able to learn. Obviously I'm a very short-term bear looking for an entry point on the long side.
ChrisMeister |
