Hi BB,
We are in a bear market.
The immediate crash that looked so close last Thursday was postponed, but the upside is still limited.
We have two very important resistances hanging over the market.
One is the 200 dma (OEX 513 SPX 1060) which hangs less then 2% over the market, the other is the March-June base line (OEX 521 SPX 1077) which on the OEX was also the key support after the first leg down, and held the market 8/5-8/26 at 519. Once broken it led they way for the biggest sell off.
The A/D line failing to support the recent up move (the whole section since 9/1), as you pointed recently, is a big minus for the market.
IMO overcoming the 200 dma hurdle is possible, more likely intra day then on a close, but overcoming the 519 hurdle is IMO the closest thing to impossible.
If the market can overcome it, whatever the excuse, I'll have to declare the long term trend, which I believed to be down since confirmed by the market crossing under its 200 dma, as not down. Maybe up, maybe flat.
The resiliance shown by the NDX high flyers (MSFT,CSCO,DELL) is supernatural. In a time when the super cap multinationals (GE, KO and PG) are (not unjustly) hammered 20%-30% (not to mention the Dow multinational MMM and DD), these, well, I don't know what to call them, with the help of some drug stocks (MRK, JNJ) and INTC, keep the indices afloat.
There was a post a week or two ago, I think it was on this thread, where the poster told about one of his broker's clients, that got angry because his portfolio was in the red, and decided to sell all the stocks and buy DELL. I was LOL when I read that, but not anymore.
The pyramid is still building, in a handfull of stocks.
AMZN is out of the game, but MSFT and DELL are still in full force.
Donno what to make of it.
ATG |
