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Technology Stocks : ADFLEX SOLUTIONS ( AFLX )

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To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (425)9/16/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant  Read Replies (1) of 718
 
Kent, I've been talking with Joe Dancy about our little newsletter the "Lonestar Growth Investor". About a month ago I suggested to Joe that I write an article on the ECM's since they were all down so far. He thought that it might be a good idea.

So for the last month I've been talking to various employees at ECM's, chip companies, and ECM industry suppliers gathering info for an article.

Whilst gathering that data I heard a lot of feedback on industry conditions. One consistent message came through. Basically while we are not yet in a tremendous upcycle, the hard times at least for big ECM's appear to be over. This is reflected in growing use of manufacturing capacity, rather than declining use which was the norm for say the last 6-8 months. A number indicated order upticks have begun to set in.

Indpendently, go onto the Lonestar Growth Investor and read the recent interview with the CEO of LSI Logic which we posted. He noted a similar trend in the semi chip area- a flattening to increase in demand for chips over the last few weeks.

This all may be linked to an upswing in orders for PC's, or it may reflect the end of inventory reduction trends say in the telecommmnucations and medical supply industries too (users of flip chips too).

So we may be near an improvement in demand for components and subassemblies generally- which in turn would help flip chip assemblers. In any case I agree with you. AFLX is too cheap with a Price/Sales ratio of 0.15!!

Since AFLX is a specialty assembler of flip chips, my guess is that AFLX would not just "die" and "wither away" as just another bit of excess assembly capacity in the industry. Their Flip chip capability is valuable to a company like HDCO or SANM. So worst case if AFLX cannot get "untracked" by itself, my guess is that a larger ECM would want to acquire AFLX' specialty asembly capability....

And to be honest I bought back into AFLX this morning... Let's see wherewe go...

Sincerely,

Doug F.
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