Just going to run my thoughts regarding FSNGX
by the thread, see if I get any reaction.
Only because I already have money in the sector
funds would I try to trade ideas like the one
which follows--there are certainly other ways
to trade an idea outside of a fund, and in general,
the sector funds really give a person too much
diversification, but that said, here is what I
was thinking.
So far this year I traded the dead cat bounce early
in the year in the gold fund, and sat in cash til a
couple weeks ago. Now I've averaged into the natural
gas utility fund and am up 9% right now. I don't know
what my target should be--maybe something around the
top of it's trading range if/when that occurs someday?
Plusses: Tropical activity in the gulf now, gas is
up quite a bit. La Nina winter should get demand up,
at least in the northern half of the country (new
long range forecasts come out this week, will give
the links when the new forecasts are out). Also
thought market volatility will scare some folks into
utilities in general. Finally, developments in fuel
cell technolgy could help out gas demand over the next
few years, would hope that coal and nuclear get edged
out by fuel cell generation plants.
Minuses: That is up to anybody on the thread with an
opinion.
I want to hold this 18 months, capturing a cold winter
and a normal winter, and then maybe part of the fuel
cell idea. But I'd trade out and pay some tax if La Nina
fails midwinter.
Thanks!
--MM |
