William,
"The news is confusing. On the one hand we are told of a glut and on the other that a shortage is developing."
Well, the problem is that people look at drives as if "they" as one thing, and want a simple story, but usually the story isn't really so simple. There could be a glut in, say, 8 and 2.1 gig drives, but shortages in mobil (i.e., 2 1/2 inch drives, generally speaking) drives and 4 gig drives. It depends on how the forecasting ability of the drive vendors (which also depends on the quality of the information that the OEMs are giving them) as well as what customers want at any given time. This is one reason that this is a difficult business. And with the OEMs cutting their inventory to the bones, going to JIT delivery, it will make things even more difficult for the drive vendors. Those drive vendors with the best inventory management--and the best communications with their customers--will gain a big edge here. Someone should hire people out of WalMart to see how to do it really well. |
