Keep the faith! This just in on the WinStar thread:
Wednesday September 16, 10:21 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release
SOURCE: Strategis Group
Booming Market Expected for Global Wireless Local Loop After 2000: Worldwide Demand Projected to Approach 50 Million by 2005
WASHINGTON, Sept. 16 /PRNewswire/ -- Although fixed wireless local loop (WLL) technology has been in existence for several years, The Strategis Group estimates that there are only one million subscribers as of the end of 1997. In the next few years, however, a combination of new WLL licensing, reduction in equipment costs, and increasing acceptance of wireless as a local loop alternative, will result in this market taking off after 2000 and growing 50 percent annually from 1998-2002. The vast majority of WLL demand will be found in markets where wireline networks are inadequate and unable to meet pent-up demand.
In Global Wireless Local Loop Markets: 1998, which was released today, The Strategis Group estimates that worldwide wireless local loop subscribers will grow from over one million in 1997 to approximately 8 million by 2000. By 2005, The Strategis Group projects 47 million WLL subscribers.
For the purpose of this study, wireless local loop demand is defined as fixed-only and includes subscribers who are paying for service. This definition excludes mobility subscribers who also use a handset for fixed purposes and trial (non-paying) subscribers. One of the key drivers in estimating wireless local loop demand includes specific WLL licensing and frequency allocation. Allocation of specific frequencies for WLL in China and India, for example, combined with their large populations and pent-up demand for basic telephony services, are expected to drive growth in the Asia-Pacific region. By 2005, Asia-Pacific will account for 40 percent of world WLL subscribers, leading all other regions.
World Fixed Wireless Local Loop Subscribers by Technology, 1997-2005
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cellular/PCS 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.8 5.8 8.8 12.7 17.1 22.3
DECT/PHS 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.6 7.8 10.3 12.9
Specialized 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.5 7.5 10.0
Satellite 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7
Source: The Strategis Group, Inc.
World Fixed Wireless Local Loop Subscribers by Region:
1997, 2001, and 2005
1997 2001 2005
Asia-Pacific 17% 34% 40%
Latin America/Caribbean 20% 24% 21%
Eastern Europe 19% 18% 18%
Western Europe 26% 14% 12%
Africa 16% 9% 6%
North America 2% 1% 1%
Middle East 0% 1% 1%
Source: The Strategis Group, Inc.
The Strategis Group's subscriber projections reveal the following trends by technology:
Analog cellular based WLL subscribers are expected to drop significantly from 46 percent in 1997 to 4 percent in 2005 as it is quickly supplanted by digital technologies.
Cellular/PCS based WLL is projected to have the greatest number of WLL subscribers, growing from 5.8 million in 2001 to 22 million in 2005. DECT and PHS based WLL are projected to be the second most popular platforms for WLL with 13 million subscribers in 2005.
By 2005, CDMA (IS-95) is expected to be the leading technology for WLL, accounting for 29 percent of the subscriber base. The assessment of CDMA's positioning is based on this technology's momentum for mobile networks and its relatively high subscriber capacity.
Specialized networks are projected to account for one-fifth of world WLL subscribers in 2005, as these networks can serve a variety of market segments from competitive telephony in developed markets to remote rural areas in developing markets. Specialized networks include systems operating in 3.5 GHz, point-to-multipoint systems, and others.
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