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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Michael Linov who wrote (7300)9/16/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: Patrick Grinsell  Read Replies (2) of 16960
 
None of the products from Rendition, 3dlabs, or ATI are V2 killers.

No, they are Banshee killers. Voodoo2 is showing some gray hairs, and like it or not sales of V2 will be considerably lower after 4Q. Think honestly to yourself. Will we sell more Voodoo2's in 3Q this year or 1Q next year? Diamond's management seemed to think that 4Q will be the end for Voodoo2. It's only natural that sales decline over time. A year and a half lifespan for V1 was unheard of for a graphics accelerator.

So this leaves us with Banshee in Q1 99. How much revenue do you think that will bring in? Nothing can conclusively be said about Banshee2 or Rampage because the roadmap is closed and 3dfx has not been very accurate in their release date track record. The best product in the world does no good if it isn't out in time. Just ask Videologic. 3dfx had the wiggle-room to blow off release dates in the past, but they no longer command the technological lead they once did. It took a year and a half to produce Voodoo2 which was essentially a Voodoo1 ZX. Yeah, Banshee was cool but they had the VGA part working since 1996 and the 3d part is borrowed from Voodoo2. Where the hell is all that R&D money going?

I think I have some legitimate concerns about expenses and new product releases. I don't care if rampage can give me a virtual "Lewinsky". If it isn't released on time the market will just pass 3dfx by.

Pat
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