R.D.,
Yes, we certainly have a 5 day trin confirmed sell signal now. My records show us at 3.82 after today's .77 trin close. We also had a closing tick of +593, a very rare high reading which generally results in a reversal the next day.
The upper 1040's on the SPX was in my target area for this wave, and may very well prove to be a ceiling, and starting point for a reversal and correction to this 10% rally we've had from Friday a.m.'s globex low of 965 the Dec. S&P (reached 1060 today).
Here's a possible wave explanation in a little further detail:
Message 5768671
One other more bearish short term scenario has us still within the 4th wave of 1 of A from the 7/20 peak, but that scenario is losing more credibility the higher we go, and the longer we stay up here. But it is still alive (barely), and a break of the lower channel line we've been riding in the past couple weeks (now in the 985 area), would provide strong confirmation that the 4th wave is over and the 5th wave of 1 of A has begun.
I personally believe wave 5 of 1 of A ended already in Friday a.m.'s globex selloff and recovery, and that we are now nearing the completion of wave a of 2 of A, with b of 2 of A to follow, a down wave of whose length I don't have a clue as yet.
Very tough market to committ to.
Regards,
David |
