Eugene:
I'm long INTC and AMAT, you're short them, one of us is obviously going to be losing money. Since I respect your opinion, this worries me. I'm not sure which one of us is wrong.
1) What do you think is going to happen in the next 120 days? What is not factored in?
2. You've said recently you'll go long AMAT at 20. Have you changed your mind? All the bears (BB,aki,teri) seem to be lowering their entry prices as the stock declines. And all the bulls, well, they were fully invested at 32 or 39 or 54, now they have no cash left to buy anything. So, am I and John the only ones buying at these prices?
3. If you don't mind telling me, what else are you shorting/putting? I'm thinking Pfizer, Cisco, Dow Index, or Coke.
I'm seriously thinking of selling my INTC and CSCO. So far, my maneuvering (putting and shorting; selling long-term positions) has kept my portfolio even since May, and up 100% for the year. With the Dow off 15% from it's high, my guess is most of the market risk is over. No more than another 10% downside market risk at most. I see little sector risk in semi-equips, as these stocks are now 55% to 85% off their 1997 highs. Their percentage decline is inversely related to their size, and I see no reason for that pattern to change. I see little company risk with AMAT, the gorilla of the group. Tell me what risk I'm not seeing, please. If you'd rather, tell me via private message. |
