I asked the following on the BK thread because they are all getting bullish and the DELL and P&F threads think we are going to 10000 tomorrow<gg> I am loaded in puts and may fire my last volley in tomorrow or Friday since I think we are going down next week. Not necessarily in BK style but down enough to make it worth while.
>I usually lurk only but have to ask a question tonight. I have seen the on going discussions back and forth as to if we are in a bullish run or a small rally in a bear market. I ask the bullish side to explain to me some observations I have since even bb is now in the bull camp (scary huh?). This is open to all and not really aimed at DT.
Market breadth has not been solid. I see weakness all over my charts with mostly the same stocks that supported the last gasp rally pretty much supporting this one. A/D has only been slightly to the advance side the last 2 days about 3-2 and advancing volume seems to be diminishing also (about 2-1) with new lows staying in the 150 area.
Overall volume on stocks has been declining with each up-tick. DELL only traded half normal volume the last 2 days and has stalled around 60 resistance for multiple days as have many other of the "market leaders". CPQ stuck at 32 1/2 resistance, IBM below 131 resistance etc. GTW reversed, MU has a bearish chart pattern, and almost every chart I updated tonight has either a bearish triangle, hammer top or floating doji at the top of a rally made on decreasing volume. I have yet to see a stock that hasn't announced a major news event break through a 200 DMA and hold it for a day.
I am not against a bull scenario however I am still leaning to the bear side since that is the intermediate trend IMO until proven otherwise and I am asking for the proof. My observation is a triple witching attempt to hold prices up long enough to cover written puts before Friday's close. When an issue is let go, it falls quickly on high volume (look at LU yesterday) until it can be loaded back into a buy program to bring things back up. Todays last hour was unbelievable. A small negative TICK moved this market down easily and it took a huge buy program to bring it back up with it aimed at the heaviest weighted stocks to prop up the DOW. This was evident as the DOW actually got ahead of the SPX and OEX during the rapid rise.
I was playing the short side of IBM and almost got whiplash watching the buy program pull in the shares to get the DOW back up.
Thanks in advance for explaining what ever I am missing but I see few bullish chart patterns, and lots of bearish ones. We are only now reaching my targets from earlier this week so I am not surprised at where we are now. I am surprised at the reaction of the bulls to it however since I see no bullish indications emerging from what we have done to this point. The area where we are now was to be expected looking at the cycles prior to this run and extending the trendlines. I think the next leg down may well be delayed until next week but the delay will only make it harder when it does turn as it crushes the hopes of those that thought this was a genuine turn around. As stated earlier by another poster, I could be wrong ( and often am ) but I haven't seen any critical resistance points taken out, most have stalled at resistance points now or are stalled at their 200 DMAs and as said before, the volume is decreasing Vs. increasing throughout the climb. My indicator on the OEX reached 93 1/2 making it severely over bought though the numbers may be skewed slightly due to the low starting point as a result of the sell off.
Please convince me since if I am wrong, I want to be on the right side of the market. You know, bulls, bears pigs etc <gg>
Thanks.
Lee <<
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