Lee; RE:" What's the Trend ? "
You asked a serious question, Lee - so I will try my best to answer you in the same spirit, FWIW.
I do my own F/A and T/A, and like most folks, I am constantly learning something or other. There are not many T/Analysts that I follow or, with whom I enjoy public (and private) bouncing of ideas off of. Donald Sew is one of them, and he is here, so I am here.
Don's forte is reading what I call "waves" of sentiment. As with any T/A, getting an exact day or time-of-day, is difficult; also challenging for all of us is reading the "extent" of movements up and down. Lotsa folks follow Don, and trade with him -- note that Don is a position trader, and he uses spreads of options, folks. Note that Don's techniques are uncannily successful in "trading ranges": Donald is not a "trend" trader or, a momentum-rider.
Don says the next "wave" will be down, and this is certainly true. Some folks went short the internet sector, and they got burned. Note that Don is posting levels on the DOW. If you are following a T/A expert like Donald, follow him, folks - the internet sector is not represented within the DOW.
Donald and I were both trying to figure out the extent of this up-movement. Though I am in complete agreement with him, my caution was that we were damn close to the DownTrend Line (200d EMA, etc.) and could likely "test" it by being drawn upwards towards it; and other folks pointed out that the PUT/CALL numbers probably favoured a rally into options expiry to inflict MAXIMUM PAIN. Some folks traded SEP options, and they got burned on LONG PUTs.
Until the major market indices break out (up) from the DownTrend Line, Lee... retrace in technical correction, find footing and resume upwards growth - the DownTrend Line is still intact - the medium-term Trend is still DOWN. period.
But, is this true of all sectors ? no.
Is this true of all geo-markets ? no.
...so, folks who are bullish - they might be right, depending upon what sandbox they are playing in, Lee.
UTY.X - Utilities have been in a BullMarket since JULY (!)
TechStox are all over the place - some back up near where they were in July (INTC) others approaching book value (semi-equips). Is it any wonder that the SOX.X is schizophrenic ?
If folks (in this thread) want to really use this medium for all that it is worth, IMHO - what we need to do is get organized (there's no better talent than TechStock Options traders, IMHO) and read all the pieces of the market puzzle: Start off with the OEX-100 and NDX-100. Donald is already getting his tools together to post readings of these two tops of the pyramid, rather than just the 30 stocks in the DOW.
Beneath these are the sector indices... within the OEX-100: XAL.X - Airlines; UTY.X - Utilities; RLX.X - Retail; DRG.X - Drugz; NF.X - Financials = BKX+IUX+XBD and so forth. Within the TechStox, there are at least 8 different sectors, folks.
If this is too much trouble, then focus on the bellwethers: MSFT INTC AMAT DELL/CPQ LU/CSCO NOK.A/ERICY EMC AOL/AMZN or something. The idea is to make money, right? Most of us don't give a hoot what the underlying is, right ?
anyhoo, my deux centimes, now off the soap-box, Lee !
I repeat - until the DOW/SPX/OEX/NYA.X BigBoard breaks out (up), re-traces, finds footing and begins to grow... THE INTERMEDIATE TERM DOWNTREND from 20-JULY IS STILL INTACT, folks.
Further - until the DOW/SPX/OEX/NYA.X BigBoard stops going up from 11-SEP, THE SHORT-TERM UPTREND IS STILL INTACT, folks.
-Steve |
