Patrick, thanks for your thoughts.
1) Customers may put off purchasing to wait for next product.
According to the press release, they are already doing that.
That's not quite how I read the press release. Sounds like inventory backlog and seasonal dropoff account for a larger part of chipset sale shortfalls than an unexpected dropoff in board sales.
On the other hand, if you perceive a problem caused by Banshee, TNT, et al diminishing V2 sales before their release, how does that effect your view of the roadmap? I guess you think that the damage is already done, but what if the difference between OEM offering and retail widens? OEM won't wait for the next OEM, but retail might wait for the next retail.
One of the key issues is being able to hold the company accountable for failure to meet their deadlines. It's human instinct to ensure that you don't slip if God and everybody can see what your doing. As far as I'm concerned, this company is on probation and needs a little public scrutiny to set some fire under their asses.
Missed deadlines would just be another excuse to hammer the stock. If there's no official deadline... What was the Banshee's target date? September? They're actually calling their shots pretty well on that score. My sense is that you have put them on probation for other (very legitimate) reasons. They're not communicating well with analysts (and through them investors) about their earnings. Worse, maybe they can't predict the earnings too well themselves! Their biggest customer(s) may have stuck it to them by cancelling orders in favor of other products (Banshee and TNT?) for the Xmas season.
Nvidia has shown half this game is marketing. The last thing I want is people saying, "Huh, what the hell is a Rampage?"
Nvidia has also cost themselves some face with their marketing. It's a double edged sword to release specs beforehand. And if not specs, then what? Technologies you don't want your competitor to know you're supporting? Timeframes that may need to be adjusted? The name of the next card? (On a humorous note, 3Dfx is still officially saying "Huh, what the hell is a Rampage?" :)
I think releasing a roadmap would generate a lot of discussion about their products, but not necessarily more interest (because it's already so high).
Simon |
