GZ,
Re: H&S satisfied
Indeed it was. the 9/1 low has completed the pattern. No further conclusions should be inferred, except that THAT down move was completed.
The key support line of March- June (OEX 519-521) has IMO become the key resistance level. Only a close over this line will testify in favor of more upside to come, and until then, I'd still believe that we only got a breather, not unlike the one in August after the first leg down.
Re: Overseas markets
Japan looks extremely bad. After the artificial pull over the 15000 mark, it went down again and is at the low. No supports in sight.
France taking a dip today under the 200 dma and currently there are no major stock market index in the world that held over its 200 dma. The NDX index is the exception, but this is a very narrow index, with MSFT, INTC, CSCO and DELL accounting together for over 50% of its total weight.
Re: Bonds
IMO there would be many rate cuts in the next 2 years. The bonds already reflect disinflation, but not deflation. The decoupling of bonds and equities, and also bonds and junk bonds is significant.
It supports the very real deflation/recession/depression fears.
ATG |
