Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (28090)	9/17/1998 7:51:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Bill was responding to your past post which I thought gave reference to a 20 day moving ave.Perhaps I misread - did note that I never saw you make reference to 20 day ma. Not a big issue . Do agree the world must move to make 200 day ma look like anything other than a freefall.However sideways actions look like continued downtrends at the initial start.Think we have lousey earnings and many pre-announcements to endure from now and up to 10/10/98. This time period still reminds me of july - november 1996.My vision and world of recollection is tunnel visioned on the semi equip mfrs. These companies have frequent wild cycles and all this pre-announcement stuff is Deja - Vu to me. The world will once again balance production with demand as new applications are introduced / made affordable.I am truly enjoying the learning process of finding quantifiable indicators that help sift the bigger picture from the noise. The more reliable posts on this thread have worked much harder than I to understand and weigh them out.I am still overwhelmed by the magnitude of all perspectives but thru consistent application over time I'm beginning to value some (VGY is certainly one of these).Reminds me of trying to get a drink out of a fire hydrant! :-) Still think this correction is bottoming out . Know it will take more time - Am hoping VGY does a sideways act like it did in april 94 thru april 95.Perhaps there is a small play to be made in-between like the august 94 rally ? Would like to hope for the quicker turnarounds such as july 96 or april 97 but I think it will take more time for Mr fundamental to get over his asian contagion.Actually I do think 94 was too long given the healthy economic environment we have now vs. then.(This will no doubt bring on some critiques ) but I think our news is so negatively biased that it is almost impossible to see the turn until it has already happened. Thanks for your post and continual tutoring Bob

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