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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: chirodoc who wrote (1170)9/17/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (3) of 10280
 
chirodoc:

but what do you think about the question
regarding whether or not a big pharma
could copy their molecule refining
process

Logically speaking, SEPR's "window" should have closed a few years back, when it first became clear that chiral separation and looking closely at active metabolites was a smart thing to do. However, it seems big pharma moves ponderously, and I am continually amazed that each quarter SEPR continues to pull new ICE's out of its hat. Clearly at some point they are going to wise up, and SEPR's window of opportunity will close (but maybe not before we get a few new juicy ICE's into the pipeline).

This means that you have to value SEPR based only on its existing pipeline, with say ten to fifteen years of associated revenue. Now the fact is that most discounted cash flow models are "blind" to what is happening 15 years out, and so the present value implications of the missing "pipeline after this one" are minimal.

Note also that SEPR is already acting to meet this criticism, with a start-up drug discovery program, and its interesting Versicor subsidiary. It is too early to tell how this is going to work out, but a combination of smart management (which they already have) and oodles of cash (which they will have) can work wonders.

Peter
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