Pat, WSJ was correct. As of yesterday 1555 hrs I am 90% in cash. My only long now is NN.
Big crash in Japan last night and Europe today.
Alcatel is down 30% because of profit warnings.
For now I will keep my powder dry but I am thinking of starting to short some stocks. Amazon comes to mind.
Ultimately over next few months we may see a total of 40% correction from 9000 Dow. The world currencies are collapsing as people don't value their currency any more and exchange it for dollars. So they have no money to buy from us. Trading/investment stops. Furthermore countries are now prohibiting investors from taking their money ( out of Malaysia for example ). Nobody will invest overseas. To some degree this will apply to telcos for a while.
The valuations of the stock market over the last 8 years have gotten out of hand IMHO because of the "trading collar halts " which prevented " a good market catharsis " to occur. Or in the memorable words of Jack Nicholson in The Joker/Batman, " all the world needs an enema ".
Well I think enema syringe is on it's way to the coast of America, direct from overseas were they had a good dose of it and are still having diarrhea.
The only doctor for this ,the US,the leader, Bill Clinton, unfortunately is sick, with a giant headache and can't perform his duties. The country is under even less desire to raise taxes for the IMF to donate to 3rd world for another fruitless bailout ( a la Russia ).
So a paralysis is at hand and must be played out, until the final,
culminating event, : " The Washout ". Everybody has to throw the towel in and have stocks in a free fall.
That's when I'll buy.
TA |
