Time to revise the present value model, now that we have the 10-K:
Once again, I will accept the $2 Salomon figure for nonbiometric ANADAC (although I will include the pass-through sales within this valuation . . . at 3% reseller profit [from last CC] on about $11.6M, that's only $350K in profits . . . times 20 . . . perhaps $.28 per share value).
TP-600 sales: Much less than I originally estimated, but growing much faster. Using last year's estimated $32.4M in sales growing at 75%, it looks like this year's sales will be about $56.7M . . . times 10% net (I think this could be conservative) = $5.67M . . . at a discounted 40 multiple, that comes to a $9 valuation. Once again, plug in Sylvan for $.03 EPS estimate times twenty, or $.60 value.
Bio-ID: Last year's sales were $6.4M, down from the year before due to the Asian economic collapse. Early signs this year are that IDX will have a good bio-ID year (California prisons, Australia deal, California youth authority, Bank of Cairo, maybe Malaysian bank (maybe not)). Realizing this one is more speculative, I'll forecast a $12M bio-ID year, net margin of maybe 15% = $1.8M profit . . . times 30 P/E . . . a $2.15 valuation.
In summary: $2 ANADAC + $9 TP-600s + $.60 Sylvan + $2.15 bio-ID = $13.75. |
