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Technology Stocks : Security Technologies - Straight Talk
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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (75)9/17/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: Enam Luf   of 206
 
Marc,

IMO, it's still really early in the game for these companies... While biometrics might be gaining some acceptance in certain specific industries, I don't see any real wide scale commercial deployment for a couple years. Right now, it's just a cool technology.

From my experience, the typical pattern with stuff like this is:

1. New technology - lots of articles about potential of new ideas

2. Incubation period - refining of technology, some public interest builds. Some people find issues with the solution and write it off as DOA.

3. Hype - One or two companies establish leadership positions in the industry, start making some big sales (corporate or end user), and investor interest climbs dramatically. Very fast top line growth.

4. Disappointment - The market begins to see that 50%-100% growth rates can't last forever. Some of the "big" players in the industry start to see potential profits and try to leverage themselves into the market... sometimes through acquisition. Smaller players get squeezed, early leaders come under pressure.

5 - Reality - There number of significant players in the industry drops dramatically as the market matures. Normally the top "pure play" company with the best technology will remain by itself, competing with larger, diversified companies who came later into the game (either through development or acquisition).

I think biometrics is in stage 2 right now.

Just my $0.02

Enam
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