Rarebird, RE: your question on settlement. By present valuing
$200.00 billion, at about 5.2%(?) and some creative tax advantages,
accelerated depreciation, posting future costs but not incurred,
etc.. the settlement liability, will present itself in a different light...
MO's cost accountants will do their job well.
i.e. streams of revenue filling up the tub, and fixed liabilities,
leaking out...seems clearly to me a continue large net positive ].
A settlement with states, ...well, the tub WILL STILL OVERFLOW!
The bathtub analogy is my general valuation model.
I like to simplify things ...with theatre...rather than lay puzzling heuristic,probabilty based stochastic simulation of future earnings dependent on various multi-factor /macro/political/hysteria/ dependent variables. blah...blah...blah
I view, this settlement and MO as if I were participating in
a weekly portfolio management of a particular very very very large
pension fund, [which I was, in point of fact in a prior career].
They will look at the amount of forecasted cash horde coming into
the pension fund, they will look and see how to allocate the cash
premiums , and look to see which stocks are under allocated. They will make note of any internal rules and investment restrictions ,
and then, noting the future define payments and other liabilities blah..blah..blah...
Settlements with the states, are important to these large pension
funds! Because they have strick fidiciary responsibilities.
Legal settlements, clear the board for a return to placing MO
in the "active" file.
Part 2.
The sum of the parts of MO is greater than the whole. I assume,
everyone knows this. I fully expect that the fine print
will provide MO an excellent pathway for the future of MO
and subsidiaries. (BTW, when, BTI and Zurich Insurance merged togetther and began to break out tobacco from the new company,
there have been NO, ( to my knowledge no legal reprecussions back)
and finally, Part 3. For the first time, in print,
I will predict, now, that the states will not get even 1/2 of what they think they are getting. WHAT? What did DK say? HAH!.
a contract is a contract is a contract. a settlement is a settlement.
right?!, WRONG. All contracts can be busted. 5 years from now,
a new law of looking back, or some other technical issue, will
cause the previous aggrement to be scrapped and rewritten.
Fancy, wishful thinking, ?? No, Many, Many legal wills and testamennts and trust estates have been broken, and re-opened
with a look back at the "rationallity" or "under stress"
claims. etc... This $200.00 B settlement, I for one would not
be long the states, they are dreaming, counting eggs with
with an imaginary chicken.
NO, the best management , excellent attorneys, and the company MO and those participating in its ownership,
will eventually have the last say.
In My Humble Opinion,
dk
to demonstrate that one type of legal aggreement can be abo |
