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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds
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To: Mike McFarland who wrote (986)9/17/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland  Read Replies (1) of 4916
 
Continued from previous post--
(so what is the bottom line Mike?)

(--and thanks everybody on the thread for putting up
with me here...I may have to start a weather topic here
on SI)

The thing that does stand out in the forecast is
that for the Southwest part of the country, the CPC has
given us a very strong La-Nina pattern forecast--essentially
the opposite of El-Nino there. So I guess I should not be
so critical of the CPC--that is a very strong signal. You
see, La Nina winters simply enhance the normal winter
climate (recall last winter's El Nino caused a reversal
of everything that is normal in the winter).

nic.fb4.noaa.gov

That >30% excess probability of warmth for Arizona and New Mexico
means that there is a 33%+>30%=>63% chance of warmth there*,
still a 33% chance of being average, and less then 4% chance
of being colder than normal, happy snowbirds that is for sure
(golfing snowbirds that is--bad for skiing in the Southwest).

A final comment on the north: After last winter's remarkably
warm winter in the northern part of the country, the upcoming
winter will still be a huge change. I beleive that it was
so warm in Minnesota last winter, that ice-fishing was not
possible for much of the time. Well, ice fishing returns
for sure this winter.

*footnote--the way the odds work, you start at 33% chance for
each catagory, then add the excess probability forecast to
the proper catagory, stealing from the opposite catagory.
Get it? hehe.
--MM
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