Peppe, good points, but...
Shouldn't ASND be at least trading in the mid 50s if this were the case ?
No. Its still too early for that. ASND will be a day traders wet dream the next few weeks as wild gyrations flip this stock back and forth. Lets not forget, that for every ALA or LU buyout rumor that surfaces, the shorts will be there with a rumor of their own. ASND might only approach a number if concrete info begins to leak.
My 60ish number is just idle speculation about what I think the number would need to be to get a deal done. If ASND comfortably makes this Q and is confident about 4Q, and next year, 60 is non-dilutive in perhaps the 1st Q of 99, maybe 2nd Q. Probably acceptable to McGinn, if he really covets ASND.
Based on what ? With this market and the annual October sell-off around the corner ? I don't concur.
I already stated based on what. Based on the assumption that the street will love LU's solidified position in the carrier space. Forget about Oct. selloffs. If this deal occurs, it doesn't close until close to the end of the year or beginning of next year. Do I hear Christmas rally, especially for those companies that continue to perform.
I just feel a little funny about this one. It's too obvious, too easy. Just like CIEN when it was trading at $ 28 ...
Forget about 28. I thought CIEN was easy at 19, then at 16. I'm feeling pain on that one.
An ASND deal is by no means done with LU. And I'm certainly not buying the stock at these levels. But I am in just under 39, and considering some spec out of the money calls. Sometimes the obvious is a good play....
Gary
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