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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ensco International Inc. (ESV)
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To: Charles Holewinski who wrote (1489)9/18/1998 1:05:00 AM
From: Gottfried   of 2005
 
Charlie, thank you for a well-considered post! I agree with everything
in it. The 10% rule would have helped a lot, even though it would
have occasionally backfired.

You said >The drillers obviously will not move up in any meaningful manner until the price of crude starts to move up.<

Agreed - but it has only recently become obvious to me. Even most of
the far more experienced oil service investors on the drillers'
thread were surprised by the steep drop in stock prices. Fundamentals
have deteriorated, but not enough to justify ESV going from about 47
to 10. And saying that Ensco has great management etc doesn't assure
me because that great management didn't and couldn't prevent the drop.

The price of crude is the driver, great management I take for
granted and I'm sure Ensco has it.

Here's another recent reiteration of expected growth rate:

ESV: ROBINSON HUMPHR has reiterated estimate for long term EPS
growth of 30.00% per year on 08/26/98

We had one of those estimates just the other day, I think it
was for 27% growth. I take these with a grain of salt, because they
depend on the price of crude and nobody knows when that will rise.

Gottfried
No need to call me Mr, but it does show good breeding.<G>
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