<imo, CIEN is in the area that is growing tremendously;
revevue based is substantial and they still have SPRINT,
Cable Wireless, World Com and others. Not surviving by its
own much longer is a statement without any facts, rather
was simple using some lost contracts; in the hightech arena,
new products are key and Ciena from the track record they can
bring out new products; especially direct ATM/IP over DWDM
access that will defintely give them a hugh market; there are
millions miles of existing Fiber that will eventually need to
be utilized better using DWDM and Ciena will gets its share;
CIEN at this price is a big bargain.>
Jach, at the risk of touching a sore spot (that's okay it's
the same sore spot on me too) and sounding like another
clueless investor, this company is in serious trouble. One
of the things I picked up on from the Ciena conference call
was the announcement by Nettles that he was restructuring
the sales and marketing area. When an analyst questioned him
on exactly what does that mean, he replied that Larry Wong,
who previously headed up the effort will now be focusing most
of his efforts on the WorldCom and Sprint accounts...while
the head of international sales will now take over all other
duties. My take, for what it's worth, is that this is not so
much a demotion for Wong, but rather a recognition that these
accounts are in such jeopardy that the head honcho of S/M
is personally taking charge of the sales teams for these
two major, major accounts...and clearly it is a defensive
move on Ciena's part - for whatever reason you may want to
believe.
I almost laughed in private when Nettles announced the OC-192
DWDM product with such fanfare at the beginning of the call,
and then acknowledged that very little fiber existed, ie was
in place, that could take advantage of this product. No, it's
not vaporware, but it almost might as well be given what I
can see as VERY limited demand. Just to relate a story, one
company that we lease dark fiber to started to complain that
our fiber no longer met specs and what was the deal. We
checked and checked, and couldn't see what had changed because
their OC-48 stuff ran just fine. We subsequently found out
they were upgrading their Sonet system to OC-192. Because
the contract we signed didn't exclude them running this system,
we had to replace at our own expense a bunch of fiber patch
terminals and jumpers so they could just (barely) meet their
light budget. I know there's no way in hell any of our stuff
could ever accomodate a DWDM for multiple OC-192 (and that's
for ANY distance), cause we can barely accommodate one,
and that's over a relatively short haul.
I don't mean to kick a company when it's down, but the news
coming out over the last several days on Ciena has just been
plain flat out bad. Regardless of the promises for a better
future (and who doesn't promise that?), right now the company's
earnings will be taking a terrible beating - they say so
themselves...and ruefully in a market area where demand is
growing explosively.
Regards, Peter. |
