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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: Jack Jagernauth who wrote (5672)9/18/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (3) of 18928
 
Hi Jack, You're correct. With the Idiot Wave at 41% Cash Reserve, it's EXACTLY at the average value for the entire period from 1982 to the present.

Since the IW is based upon exponential moving averages of each of the components, the Oscillator shows where the IW would be if those moving averages were replace with the most recent data. In this case the IW would read "27" (41-14) which would be into the low risk or bullish area.

I believe that most of the EMAs are based upon 13 weeks, but would have to check. So, the current readings would have to continue for a full quarter for the IW to finally get from 41 to 27.

Personally I want to see harmony in all four components before I scream "Buy - Buy - Buy!" We have three in the bullish area and one in the neutral area as of this last week. This is much better than it's been. I would still like to see the Relative Valuation drop to the bullish area.

I'll hop over to Jim B's pages and see what I can discern about the ACM. Historically the Idiot Wave and Jim's TVR reading were usually quite close together, however, I'm not familiar with his ACM model. It seems to me it was related not so much to AIM as to fund switching strategies. Anyway, I'll check it out and also see if Jim will help here on this point.

Best regards, Tom
PS: Can I have some feedback on whether the Bullish/Neutral/Bearish reading is more or less understandable than Low/Ave./High Risk? I'm flexible.
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