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Technology Stocks : SI Diamond Technology (SIDT)
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To: dwight martin who wrote (389)9/18/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: Joe Master   of 623
 
A few comments:

Yaniv said they need to get funding from "somewhere" to get the 4"X4" prototype built and working.

I will discuss the licensing revenues they mentioned and yes they are insane. They are so far off target that it calls everything else they say into question. They mentioned licensing revenues for FEPET as the following $7-$10 million for 99 $45 for 2000 and $105 million for 2001. Lets assumethe highest royalty I've heard of in this business and say they get 5% then they are talking about $2.1 billion in a period starting in 27 months. Hell nobody could gear up a fab and do that kind of business unless they started now. Of course if you take a more realistic view and assume a 2% royalty it would mean they will need to license over $5 billion in revenue. That my friends is about a quarter of the total flat panel display business.

Think about it hasn't anyone ever told you if it sounds too good to be true it probably is. Well in this case change the probably to certainly. Remember this is a stock selling for a quarter.

One more comment. They are spliting the company but they are not getting any new facilities or people right away. Management of the current company will run both companies. Has anyone ever heard of this working anywhee else ever? One CC questioner asked about this and they kind of sloughed this of as unimportant. If you also listened carefully you will also know that they do not have the $5 million lined up yet. I am not sure if they are close or whether it is a pipe dream, but one thing for sure is that it is a risk that may come to light.
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