Steve and the thread:
As I have tried to hint in the past, the 100MHz
spectrum slice held by MMDS operators is quite valuable,
since it allows higher spectral efficiency (say 6bits/Hz/sec)
than the higher frequencies used by WCII, TGNT, and LMDS
operators. Technology such as the one gained by CSCO with
its acquisition of Clarity Wireless, also removes
the need for line of sight communications in this
band. However, because of the longer range propagation
of MMDS frequencies, co-channel interference (interference
of signals in different cells) is quite severe. This
can again be dealt with by smart antennas, but at a higher
cost, particularly if one takes into account the fact
that MMDS antennas need to be larger (longer wavelength).
Also, from a financial point of view MMDS operators are
flat on their back with debt in the hundreds of millions
of dollars. The winners of the FCC ruling may ultimately
be RBOCs such as Bell South. Anyhow, this threat is several
years away.
Regarding Jason, etc... I agree it is healthy to have
bearish input, but the bear case would have to be based on
fundamental analysis, not by looking at charts over
selectively chosen time intervals. There was actually an
article in Telephony Magazine about a month ago where
the writer was asking questions about the long-term willingness
of financial markets to support CLECs, but the writer
did not sound terribly convinced. As far as I am concerned,
the long term bull case based on a) strong BW demand for
the last mile (both telephony and datacom), and b) the
lower deployment cost and higher deployment speed of
wireess, remains unassailable. The only uncertainty is
execution, but WCII's team has performed extremely well
up to this point. However, I would love to see an acquisition
of ARTT at a depressed price in the next 7 or 8 months.
Finally to limtex and SteveG regarding CAMA, I have not been
able to locate any information on it, but I do not believe
that the word ''ambiguity'' refers to ambiguity function
of modulated signals. It probably refers to the ambiguity
function of code words representing hopping sequences (for frequency
hopping spread spectrum) or of spreading sequences (for direct
sequence spread spectrum). Does the company (World Links?)
which uses CAMA have a web site?
Best regards,
Bernard Levy |
